All of the posts on this site.
Listen to the traditional English folk song, Greensleeves. It is one of my favorites. The lyrics are here.
What does “Greensleeves” mean? The answer is in the Wikipedia article here, under the heading “Lyrical Interpretation.”
$2,269 = S&P 500 close 10 Jan 2017 (Yahoo Finance)
28.09 = S&P 500 P/E Ratio on 10 Jan 2017 based on previous 10 years of earnings, AKA “Shiller Ratio,” “CAPE Ratio,” or “PE 10.” (www.multpl.com)
$29.8 trillion = total US market capitalization = $20.2 trillion NYSE + $9.6 trillion NASDAQ
$18.9 trillion = US annual GNP estimate (www.BEA.gov, GDP and the National Income and Product Account (NIPA) Historical Tables, Table 1.7.5)
131.2% = “Buffett Indicator” current as of 10 Jan 2017. This number is a variation* on [Total Market Capitalization] / GNP**.
(The calculation is explained here. Numerator obtained from Federal Reserve Bank of St. Louis, current value obtained by extrapolating with the Wilshire 5000 Index. The denominator is obtained from the BEA’s GNP from above. Calculations and chart in this Excel spreadsheet).
*Instead of using actual market cap value, I used “Nonfinancial corporate business; corporate equities; liability, Level” from the Federal Reserve Bank of St. Louis because the data is available since 1945. That number is only reported quarterly, so the Wilshire 5000 index is used to extrapolate to find the current value.
**The GDP is used by some reports instead of GNP, but Buffett uses the GNP. GDP and GNP are very similar, within about 1% of each other, and don’t fluctuate like total market cap does.
I have to pick an economist. My pick is John P. Hussman. He posts straightforward charts showing strong correlation between current indicators and future results. He uses the S&P 500 to measure performance and he has consistently posted weekly since 2003. All of his posts are available for quick reference: Hussman Funds Weekly Market Comment.
241 = current Consumer Price Index. This number is adjusted so that it averages 100 from 1982-1984. For the first year this number was calculated, 1913, the value was 9.9 (BLS)
1/2-3/4 = target range for the federal funds rate. (www.federalreserve.gov, 14 Dec 2016 FOMC Statement, and bankrate.com)
“Yield Curve” at stockcharts.com
6.93 = Chinese Yuan Renminbi for 1 US dollar (x-rates.com)
All energy data here is in petajoules = 1 quadrillion joules = “1-with-fifteen-zeros” joules, which can quickly be converted to other units of energy for comparison:
1 petajoule =
395,000 petajoules = 2014 global energy consumption estimate (International Energy Agency, Key World Statistics 2016)
102,704 petajoules = 2015 US energy consumption estimate, 26.0% of global total (US Energy Information Administration Annual Energy Review, Table 1.1)
See also the US energy flow graph, Section 1.0, for a visualization of energy use.
9,911,000 petajoules = energy contained in the 1,620 billion barrels of proved world petroleum reserves (US Energy Information Administration), using the above conversion as an estimate of the energy equivalent.
7,153,000 petajoules = energy contained in the 6,582 trillion cubic feet of proved world natural gas reserves (US Energy Information Administration). This is probably a very rough estimate because of variance in the energy contained in different natural gas.
$50.82 / barrel = current price of WTI crude oil (US EIA) = $8,307,000 / petajoule of energy
$3.41 / million BTU = Henry Hub spot price of energy from natural gas (US EIA) = $3,232,000 / petajoule from natural gas
8.307 / 3.232 = 2.6: oil energy currently costs 3.4 times as much as natural gas energy.
$1,188 = price of one ounce of gold (goldprice.org)
$16.74 = price of one ounce of silver (goldprice.org)
1,188 / 16.74 = 71, current gold-silver ratio, historical range of 14 – 100 since 1975 (goldprice.org charts)
324 million = total US population (US Census Bureau Population Clock)
251 million = US civilian noninstitutional population
59.0% = employment-population ratio, which is the percentage of civilian noninstitutional population who are employed. Total employed is 148 million people. This is 45.7% of the total population.
5.3% = “unemployment rate” the most-often-reported percentage that excludes people who are not seeking employment, whether receiving unemployment benefits, welfare, or otherwise.
Click here for historical employment numbers. For more detail in easy-to-read charts, see “Charting the Labor Market.” The data is also broken down regionally and by state.
(US Department of Labor, Bureau of Labor Statistics Current Population Survey, November 2015)
I just watched the movie The Big Short. It portrays itself as exposing the truth. It exposes the truth about the actions at the very top of the “housing crisis” problem, but it fails to really drive home the scope of the problem. Yes, people at the banks were apathetic, irresponsible, and crooked, and their actions ultimately resulted in taxpayers footing the bill. However, it portrays the other participants in the problem as victims, and I believe this is an injustice.
One statement in the movie in particular clearly emphasizes my point and I want to bring it up because it is so pervasive in our language. They quote a statistic about people being evicted from homes they lived in that banks bought for them by saying, “X million people lost their homes.” No. Those X million people never owned homes in the first place. The first people to be evicted in such a situation are those who took low-money-down, teaser-rate mortgages. That means they never paid a dime for “their” home. That’s the nature of such loans. The bank took a huge chance trying to give them something they never earned in the first place. They were irresponsible and undisciplined enough to take it and not pay. Maybe you could say they were naive enough to take it. Maybe even the loan sharks practically forced it on them. Regardless, they were part of the problem and nothing was taken from them that they actually earned. X million other people weren’t greedy enough to fall for such obvious gimmick loans, remained living right where they were, and happily waited out the crisis watching it on network TV over a new digital antenna.
Is the problem behind us? No. I don’t know what the next “crisis” is, but I know how to survive it. Avoid the following irresponsible, undisciplined decisions: cable TV (yes, that’s right, you will not know what to do with your spare time, see suggestions below), car loans (yes, save up then drive a used car), smoking pot (it makes you dumb and lazy I’ve seen it personally), credit card debt (pay it off by all means necessary especially by quitting the other items on this list), excessive alcohol (quit entirely if you have to).
I’m going to add to the list: ridiculously expensive but worthless college degrees. Students are the latest fad hapless debtor voters for the government to victimize and force taxpayers to bail out. Oh, but certainly education is important! Getting drunk and high for 4 years and talking about your feelings is not an education, even if you pay $35K per year to do it.
Do: read. Information is out there.
Do: exercise. Bad health is expensive.
Of note, they show a guy with a family in the movie who is evicted even though he paid his rent because the owner defaulted. That is truly unfortunate. However, I personally work hard to ensure that those who pay their rent, as is reflected by their credit score, have a safe and stable place to live and pay their rent on time!
It is time for me to get a job. My credit card monthly balance is now roughly equal to my checking account balance. I need income.
I have driven for Uber about 5 different occasions now over the last 2 weeks here in Columbus. The bad news is, you can be online for hours at a time sometimes without getting a single trip. The good news is, it is great fun, you talk to a lot of different people, during peak times there are plenty of trips to be had, and you can know exactly when those peak times are, they’re obvious. The peak times I’ve identified are 1. weekend nights when the bars close, 2. after sporting events like after Ohio State football and Blue Jackets hockey games.
I have averaged only about $10/hour so far, but a lot of the online hours that Uber counts include sitting at my house waiting and not getting a call. I made $75 in the 3 hours after midnight on New Year’s Day. Last night, I made $20 in the 1 hour following the Columbus Blue Jackets hockey game by making 4 Uber trips from the Arena District.
I would now not say, “I drive for Uber,” but rather, “I use the Uber app to get paid to drive people home from specific local events.”
I helped my uncle build his shed!
I signed up for the real estate course at Hondros Business College. I am scheduled to finish the course on 18 February.
I also joined the Central Ohio Real Estate Entrepreneurs, COREE, yesterday. It’s a really great group of about 320 members.
I am seeking to help lawyers implement accounting software and take a directed look at the business side of their practice in order to more effectively self-manage and consciously make business decisions.
Still running smoothly and fully occupied. We are saving money for a remodel in a few years depending on the market and situation. In October, I replaced the steps.
Kineomen is a holding company based in North Carolina. The president of Kineomen is also the CFO of Simple Kneads, the bread company . Kineomen holds a stake in Simple Kneads and owns 707 Brookgreen Terrace in Graham, North Carolina.
I lived at “The Terrace” for about 6 weeks in October and November doing upgrade work. It was like camping indoors. I really enjoyed it and I am now looking to do the same thing in Columbus, Ohio. Removing the vines from the side was one day out of many projects.
Continuing to build the brand and expand sales. Exciting advancements each month.
I still plan on going there in person as soon as possible.
I’m still out of the stock market.
Dear Mr. Trump,
I was a US Marine from 2007 to 2015. I flew CH-53E helicopters in the Marine Corps and completed two tours to Afghanistan. I completed my service as a Captain. I graduated from Ohio State with an electrical engineering degree in 2006. I am a civilian now, and I am happy that I will be starting a business in Columbus, Ohio in your de-regulated America.
I am a life-time Republican and I still find myself cheering for Republicans like I cheer for Cleveland sports teams. I just do. It’s in my blood. I especially relished your victory because of the brash exposure of phony politicians, and insidious media bias. Unlike a cheering fan, however, I no longer align with Republicans on every issue.
I read your two-page 100-day action plan as well as The Art of the Deal. I agree with almost everything on the action plan and I am encouraged that it will be executed by the competent team that you are assembling.
The one item that sticks out like a sore thumb, however, is your energy policy. Putting Americans to work producing $50 trillion worth of domestic energy from reserves like shale, oil, natural gas, and “clean” coal would be like spending millions of dollars to refurbish the brick façade of the Commodore Hotel. It is uninspiring, unimaginitive, and small-thinking. This stated initiative is especially disappointing because of the contrast with what could be. A state-of-the-art energy infrastructure that favors renewable sources and efficiency is the modern-day equivalent of having the world’s tallest building, which as I’m sure you are painfully aware, we no longer possess.
We could build the world’s tallest building, but we don’t because it is not worth doing. Creating an energy infrastructure in America that wins in measures like efficiency, per-capita consumption, and reduced reliance on limited natural resources, especially foreign sources, is worth doing. Energy acquisition and production is not just an environmental issue. It is an important economic, national defense, and national security issue. We spend trillions, and commit forces around the world to secure trade routes to attain energy from countries with whom we would otherwise rather not deal at all. Energy is an issue that every country in the world faces, and it is not going away.
This would require challenging the very American voters who elected you as president. Some of the policies would be controversial and potentially unpopular. However, to your credit in my opinion, this has never stopped you. Leading the world with the truly best energy infrastructure would require cultural buy-in at the most basic level. Such a cultural shift would have to be led by an independent initiator with a grass-roots following and credibility on the issue. Politicians quoting scientists telling us that melting ice and arguably-measurable increases in storm intensity will never assign the imporance that it deserves. The various other reasons to undertake these projects are more directly visible and more important anyway.
This would require innovation. I hardly have to say that America is great and always has been because of our ability to innovate. We are up to it if anybody is up to it.
This would be difficult. We fought a civil war to save the union and end the evils of slavery—difficult, but the right thing to do. We were the deciding factor in both world wars—difficult, but the right thing to do. President Kennedy challenged America in 1961 to reach the moon by the end of the decade—difficult, but we got there first, and on time. Opening the floodgates to easy energy would be predictable, boring, and easy. All three of those things are un-Trump and un-American.
We need new energy infrastructure projects, but we shouldn’t be dusting off the old brick façades from 1970. Our infrastructure is already big. It should be innovative, efficient, shiny, and new. It should win in every category and by every measure. It can and should be built by competent American private businesses with leaders like yourself, incentivized by natural market forces. We can. It is worth doing, and it is the right thing to do.
Nathan Ruffing
I have just two favorite things this year. They must be good then!
The Great Courses are separate from, but available through Audible. They each deserve to be on my list in their own right, but I group them together because that’s how I buy them. I have an Audible subscription and I use many of my monthly credits on The Great Courses. Audible is Amazon’s way of selling audio books. For me, they have transformed several otherwise boring tasks such as removing wallpaper, yard work, and driving between Ohio and North Carolina, into riveting adventures. The Great Courses are series of lectures organized into 30 or 45 minute segments given by the best professors that academia has to offer on each subject. I am currently listening to my 4th. I highly recommend “History’s Greatest Stories of Exploration,” to start. You’ll be hooked! Better than fiction!
Have you ever been down to your last socks and thought, “This is gonna be a bad sock day.” Why? Why wear cheap, thin old socks? Throw them out! Donate them! The industrial revolution has brought all the comforts that technology can offer and you reject the efforts of our ancestors by wearing third-rate socks to save a few dollars? Socks touch your skin all day long. They have to deal with your sweaty feet. They support you when you stand and walk. They have to fit like gloves. If you spend more than $10,000 on a car in which you spend less than an hour per day, how can you justify saving $10 on socks? It’s ridiculous!
Darn Tough socks were part of the gear issued when I was in the military before we went on deployment. Great gear. Everybody loved them. They are expensive, but worth the money. There is only one drawback, they are not good for hot weather.
Merry Christmas and a happy New Year! I hope you kick back with some new socks and listen to an audio book!
Oprah has 104 favorite things this year. That’s 2 new things per week, each week, all year long. Really!? Clearly my list is 52 times as authentic as hers.
Have you ever learned the words to a song and found that it totally changes your experience? For example, have you ever known a couple whose first dance was to Every Breath You Take by The Police? It’s a nice song, but it’s about an obsessive stalker. Sting even says that’s what it’s about. Have you ever been to a wedding where they play Get Low by Lil Jon? Those lyrics require no explanation.
What are we listening to??? The following are three more songs with interesting lyrics:
They are all 3 super-catchy. Total toe-tappers. I like all 3.
However! Read the lyrics out loud to somebody. How does it make you feel?
Just listen to this wholesome 2016 jam from Australian artist Sia to cheer yourself back up.
Why am I writing this? More importantly, why are you reading? More importantly, how is it that I can publish something that the entire world can read instantly and for free? This is possible because the internet went public 25 years ago on 6 August 1991. Yes, 25 years ago, but it is still a huge deal–huge–and it may be just now ramping up. Is it breaking news? Yes! Every day of our lives.
I took European history as an AP class in high school, and I could hardly have found it more boring. I specifically remember being taught what a huge deal the “Gutenberg Press” was. I happened to believe that the Gutenberg Press was the single most boring invention or event I’d ever heard of. No longer! By a combination of The Great Courses lectures and learning my own family history, I am a history convert and an enthusiastic believer that the Gutenberg Press matters to us because of its analogous relationship to the internet.
History repeats itself, but you have to know which history to look at. We should look at the Gutenberg Press as the most pertinent historical event for us today because the internet is the modern-day acceleration of what the Gutenberg Press started 550 years before it.
The Gutenberg Press was a big deal because it enabled the rapid dissemination of information. It greatly lowered the barrier to producing copies of ideas. Instead of requiring a team of monks to copy books by hand one word at a time, you could stamp out pages by the hundreds. Before the press, copying was extremely slow, after the press, several orders of magnitude faster, but you still needed a printing press and employees, or later an antenna and a license to broadcast by radio or television, or a copy machine and some kind of network to disseminate the paper. From the press and employees to an antenna and broadcast license, these were all things that only organizations and businesses had, so there was still a barrier. However, beginning in August of 1991, that requirement dropped to zero. Literally anybody with internet access–free at your public library–can publish an idea and give instant access to most of the world within seconds and at a ridiculously low cost of less than $70 per year for a website. Twitter, Facebook, and all social media that matters is free. TV networks actually report what social media says, not the other way around.
What does it mean? It means that both the printing press and the internet are a big deal, and a big deal for the same reason. Therefore, some of their effects on society will be analogous. If you want to read history that is pertinent to today, a good target year is somewhere between 1440 and 1648–plus or minus of course.
The internet went public 25 years ago, and 1465 was 25 years after the printing press was invented, so you might say 1465 is the best year to look at, but things happen faster today. I would argue that we’re past 1465. Did the average peasant even know about the press in 1465? Probably not. Maybe they had seen a printed Bible at church by that time or heard some rumors. By contrast, an estimated 40% of the world’s population is already using the internet.
1648 was 208 years after the invention of the press, and by that time, the protestant movement was established, and The Thirty Years’ War had concluded, the largest conflict that can be directly connected to the invention of the printing press. The Thirty Years’ War involved all the major European powers, resulted in the fracture of the Catholic Church, established an entire new category of religion, and an estimated 8 million people died.
Back to what made this interesting to me in the very first place. Let’s have a quick conversation with my great x 9 grandfather, Michael Rouffin, in Bexbach, Germany in 1655 when he was 20 years old (in German of course, and I made some of this up).
“So Nine-Great Grandpa, that’s a nice wooden-covered Bible you have displayed on the table there.”
“Yes. I’m the first in my family to own one. It was given to me by the church as a gift when I came here to Bexbach.”
“Why did you move to Bexbach? Was there a problem in Rouffin where you’re from?”
“No. The problem was here in Bexbach. Most of the men in this town were killed in the war. Bexbach and the surrounding towns were decimated. I was summoned here by the landlord to replace them and farm the land and repopulate the town.”
“What do you think of the war and these new religions that have established themselves?”
“I don’t know. It sure is a crazy world these days though.”
Boy, was he right! Sound familiar? It was a time of extreme knowledge increase, and extreme upheaval.
That’s all I have. I have to read more history…
Donald Trump is (or will be on 20 January) the most powerful man on the planet. He released two pages outlining what actions he is going to take in his first 100 days in office, his 100-Day Action Plan to Make America Great Again on his website in late October. Let’s see how he does.
Here is a link to the pdf that I downloaded around the time of the election.
Here is a link to where you can download it directly from his site. (same document, different place)
8 November 2016: Trump elected.
15 Nov 2016: President-elect Trump announces presidential inaugural committee leadership. Unrelated to the plan, just preparing for the inauguration.
21 Nov 2016: President-elect Trump releases video message. The video is just over 2 minutes. He reiterates items directly from the plan.
18 Jan 2017: two days before the inauguration, Trump does an interview with Fox News. Most of the talk was about the inauguration. From the election through today, there were 3 main focuses in the media and from Trump:
23 Jan 2017: Sean Spicer’s first White House press briefing, work day one.
Many of the questions at the briefing sound stupid. Initially, I hesitated to make that judgement because the reporters must be well-vetted to even be in the room. Then one of the reporters (named “Shane,” no further ID stated) referred to the “First Day Action Plan,” and asked why Trump didn’t address everything on the plan on the first day. That subject I am familiar with and I am 100% sure it’s an incredibly stupid question. It’s a 100-day plan, not a 1-day plan. I’m really surprised they don’t suspend reporters’ privilege of being in that room sometimes and replace them with competent people.
Trump still believes there were millions of illegal voters in the election.
28 Jan 2017: I am not going to continue to follow this contract. It just takes too much time. In attempting to follow, I have heard various reporters say that it is difficult and it is their full-time job. I will return to the subject on 30 Apr to check the results.
In searching for the truth on this subject, the best source I found was to search “Sean Spicer” on YouTube. A good portion of what the media talks about comes from the White House spokesman. I am certainly not suggesting agree with everything that he says, but if you get the information second-hand it is often not even recognizable from what Sean Spicer actually said.
Another source, and I know this hurts, is to follow Trump on Twitter. Like it or not, fact: the president of the United States tweets daily. The media talks about it. If you’re going to hear them talk about it, you should know what they’re talking about.
That is obviously only one side. For dissenting opinions, I look for Trump’s own people because they don’t have ulterior motives to dissent. Secretary of Defense General Mad Dog Mattis’ dissenting opinion on the use of torture is a good example so far.
Two other sources from the past that appear genuine are his former employees Louise Sunshine and Hayley Strozier. They tell unflattering stories that appear to be true while they don’t appear to be gaining personally from it.
What I believe are unifying truths in this situation are that we don’t have a unifying purpose. Had Obama succeeded at his agenda, half the country didn’t want it. He talked smoothly of unification and “crossing the aisle,” but to me and many people, he was divisive in his own way. Trump is openly hostile, and I thought that, counter-intuitively, maybe this approach would have the opposite effect by making it a badge of honor to get along with the big bad Trump. That is a stretch I know! So far, that does not appear to be the result.
What are we doing? What is success?
So we lack a unifying purpose at the national level: we need to invest personally in our local communities! People are already doing this. You probably already are. Turn off the TV, and feel good about it! Embrace your sense of purpose!
…
30 April 2017: His first 100 days are complete.
In this post, I put the numbers that we as individuals can know with reasonable certainty in perspective. I cannot say based on these numbers whether man-made climate change is or is not happening. What I can say is that the numbers show human carbon transfer is large enough to possibly have an effect. Because I believe the burden of proof should be on those saying there is no change, then I assume man is affecting the global climate.
This phenomenon should be called “Global Carbon Transfer.”
Below are some numbers to put our effect as humans in perspective. I have heard both sides of this polarizing issue for a long time, and have been meaning to put some numbers to my own intuition. I chose numbers that can be intuitively understood and, though they are estimates, can be measured fairly directly. As far as I know, the following is not seriously in dispute.
5.15 x 1018 Kg = total mass of the atmosphere.
3.0 x 1015 Kg = total mass of CO2 in the atmosphere.
0.0582% = CO2 in the atmosphere by weight. It makes up a very small portion of the atmosphere.
https://micpohling.wordpress.com/2007/03/30/math-how-much-co2-by-weight-in-the-atmosphere/
35.9 x 1012 Kg = annual CO2 released by human activity, 2014.
1.2% = mass of annual CO2 released by humans as a fraction of the total mass of CO2 in the atmosphere = [35.9 x 1012 Kg] / [3.0 x 1015 Kg]
2.0 x 1015 Kg of CO2 = total CO2 released from 1870-2014.
67% = [2.0 x 1015 Kg] / [3.0 x 1015 Kg] = mass of CO2 released from 1870-2014 as a fraction of the total mass of CO2 in the atmosphere.
https://www.co2.earth/global-co2-emissions
The amount of CO2 released by humans can be measured fairly accurately. Annually, it equals ~1.2% of the total weight of CO2 in the atmosphere. This is not to be confused with a ratio comparing to the amount of CO2 released naturally annually. We are one source of many in an equilibrium. Though that would be a more meaningful ratio, I did not use it because the amount released and consumed naturally cannot be measured as directly, and is beyond the scope of this post. I stick to numbers that I can know and verify with reasonable certainty.
The amount released by humans since the beginning of the industrial revolution can also be estimated. This equals ~67% of the total CO2 in the atmosphere. This is the best I can do as an individual debating this topic, but the total we have poured into the atmosphere over that amount of time is like measuring the amount of water you put into a bucket with a big leak. How much is still in the bucket? It depends on the leak!
~200 x 109 Kg = mass of CO2 that volcanoes release annually on average. This number is widely disputed, and is known to be not well measured.
http://hvo.wr.usgs.gov/volcanowatch/archive/2007/07_02_15.html
[200 x 109 Kg] / [35.9 x 1012 Kg of CO2] = .56%,
Regardless of what you believe, you have to read about this! The magnitude is unbelievable. Fun to read about.
https://www.wired.com/2015/04/tambora-1815-just-big-eruption/
The Tambora eruption was possibly the largest in the last 10,000 years: https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/1815_eruption_of_Mount_Tambora
Tambora released up to 120 x 109 Kg of SO2 and likely caused the “Year Without a Summer” of 1816: https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Year_Without_a_Summer
What do I think we should do? What do I think government policy should be? Regardless of climate change, I believe that reducing dependency on carbon-based fuels is a worthy challenge. Regardless of climate change! Even though I believe global warming is happening, I can’t prove it. Nobody can. Even if it can be proven, can we stop it or reverse it? Well, who cares? Alternatives are cleaner, more renewable, and we could use a good challenge anyway! I think the government should set policy–yes including raising taxes on carbon-based fuels–such that the price is at a level where people have to make significant life choices to economize, but can still live comfortably. For example, car pooling and public transportation are a lot more attractive at $5 / gallon than at $2 / gallon. This simultaneously buys time to find alternate solutions, spurs market ingenuity, provides a meaningful challenge that encourages people to work together, and even supports national security by reducing dependency.
