Trapped-Air Transmission Theory

I describe an aggressive approach of socializing outdoors. I do this because people are already socializing – wherever they want. The idea that we will avoid gathering at all is busted as far as I am concerned. Being now established that we are going to gather, outdoors are great! Let’s gather outdoors! If you must be indoors with others, ventilate. Open the windows and turn on a fan.
Propositions
  • The virus spreads almost exclusively by aerosols.
  • The aerosols must be trapped indoors to concentrate enough to infect.
  • There is an extremely strong correlation between infectious dose and severity of the resulting infection.
Aerosol Versus Droplet Information Sources

They refer to it as “enclosed space” transmission also.

3 April: Viral load, infectious dose, and severity discussion: https://www.newscientist.com/article/2238819-does-a-high-viral-load-or-infectious-dose-make-covid-19-worse/

1 Jun: Talks about K value of the virus and super spreading: https://www.theguardian.com/world/2020/jun/01/k-number-what-is-coronavirus-metric-crucial-lockdown-eases

29 June: https://news.harvard.edu/gazette/story/2020/06/air-conditioning-may-be-factor-in-covid-19-spread-in-the-south/

6 July: https://academic.oup.com/cid/article/doi/10.1093/cid/ciaa939/5867798, signed by 239 scientists from around the world.

8 July: https://www.webmd.com/lung/news/20200708/air-conditioning-may-be-spreading-covid

July: https://wwwnc.cdc.gov/eid/article/26/7/20-0764_article

16 July, start at position ~49:00 with the super spreader question and listen about 10 minutes, two questions answered: https://www.cidrap.umn.edu/covid-19/podcasts-webinars/episode-16 If you prefer to read it, go to position 0:51:00 in the transcript and read to 0:53:00: https://www.cidrap.umn.edu/sites/default/files/public/downloads/ep._16_transcript.pdf

30 July: https://www.theatlantic.com/health/archive/2020/07/why-arent-we-talking-more-about-airborne-transmission/614737/ This is a long article unifying many of the well-known aspects of the virus into a clear image of the virus that clearly contrasts with the mainstream prevention advice.

Seeking Challenges
  • Confirmed outdoor transmission absent of indoor possibility. This is difficult as most outdoor gatherings have an indoor component as well, but not impossible . The list of indoor transmission events is long and clear and they include whole buildings independent of physical distance. If the virus were spreading outdoors, there ought to be at least one outdoor event  to point to … ? Anybody?
  • Confirmed droplet transmission that cannot be explained by aerosol transmission. Difficult, nearly impossible, but would be a compelling challenge.

I personally believe my theory: Anthropogenic Coronavirus Theory, is correct, and ACSRS-CoV-3 (commonly known as SARS-CoV-2), that causes COVID-19, was born indoors. Because of that, I believe:

Classifying the Evidence, Key Statements
  • Evidence for aerosols cannot be explained by droplet spread.
  • Evidence for aerosol transmission does not exclude the possibility of droplet spread.
  • Evidence for droplet spread could almost always be explained by aerosol spread.
  • Aerosol spread prevents us from excluding droplets.
  • To conclusively exclude droplet transmission would require attempting to transmit from close range while blocking aerosols. Even with willing participants this would be difficult. I believe the best way to test droplets would be to host an outdoor sports event with willing participants and random seating, then control the attendees in quarantine for 14 days after the game to determine the spread during the game in an outdoor setting. The best evidence for droplet exclusion is the ineffectiveness of masks in Hong Kong, but this is admittedly inconclusive and has been largely ignored thus far.
Summary: Trapped-Air Aerosol Spread Versus General Aerosol Spread

“Trapped-air” aerosol spread is a sub-category of the more general aerosol spread. The additional identifying property of trapped-air aerosol spread is that the aerosols must be trapped in an enclosed space and concentrated without being neutralized over time to transmit a virus.

COVID-19 Transmission Strengths

The virus’ transmission strength is that it is light and floats on the air. Aerosols. Yes. We know this. It is highly transmissible and it is airborne.

The virus spreads with enormous viral load in the spreader, filling up an enclosed space thoroughly from wall-to-wall, corner-to-corner, in a room or building as the spreader simply breathes and everybody breathing in the space is infected. The virus gradually concentrates in a room, floating on the air in tiny particles. Once the virus concentration reaches a critical infectious dose threshold, it infects everybody in the space regardless of proximity to the spreader because of dispersion and gradual increase of concentration!

Even physical distancing is not the answer!

COVID-19 Achilles Heel

The virus has an Achilles heel. The virus needs something very specific that we have the power to take away:

The virus’ weakness is that it is domestic. It is an indoor virus. It needs to be trapped indoors and concentrated to spread. It is a tiny fragile RNA virus. The virus needs its friends. The virus army needs strength in numbers. The virus’ weakness is that its infectious dose threshold is high and only can reach the infectious dose threshold indoors.

Some Evidence by Correlation: Known Spread Vectors Are Indoors
  • Nursing homes
  • Meat packing facilities
  • Cruise ships
  • Hospitals to health care workers. (hospitals have compartmentalized and filtered ventilation, but not as good as an outdoor breeze)
  • Prisons
  • Call centers
  • Restaurants
  • Large housing complexes in high-density cities – spreading in hallways and through walls??
  • Entire cities with public transit and skyscrapers.
  • Young people crowding beaches are probably hanging out indoors after a long day in the sun. Duh.
  • The major proven spreaders are indoors.

ACSRS-CoV-3 / COVID-19 is domestic! It was born in air-conditioned space. It spreads in air-conditioned space. It lives in air-conditioned space.

We could not spread this thing faster if we tried. The virus knows us better than we know ourselves. We concentrate exhaled breath around us on purpose for efficiency in air conditioning and COVID-19 loves it!

The Solution

Be outside. If not, open the windows. Divide and conquer. Send COVID-19 outside to die. Release the virus pressure switch. Spread the enemy’s troops far from their logistical lifeline, which is concentrated exhaled breath. Go to the beach! Go to parks! Sit on an outdoor patio! A simple light breeze is your friend and protector!

Double protect. Turn on a fan. Disperse the virus army.

Triple protect. Let in as much UV sunlight as possible. Neutralize the virus army over time.