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Sky at a Glance | Recent Astronomy News & Night Sky Events – Sky & Telescope
Category Archives: Industrial Change Surfing
The industrial revolution is a powerful set of waves that has crashed into our lives. We, the modern man, must consciously decide how to surf these waves. If we do not pay attention, we can drown. If we select the right waves, we can gracefully enjoy our time like no man before us. If we truly excel, our opportunities are historically unprecedented.
Subcategories
Celestial Movement: Know Less Understand More
The following are true and do not change perceptibly over an entire human lifetime.
- The non-sun stars do not move relative to each other. Not now, not over thousands of years, not anytime we will ever know about. The stars remain a fixed spherical image we gaze out at from the inside.
- The north star and southern cross remain in the same positions in the sky and do not move relative to an observer on Earth, even as Earth rotates. They mark the axis of rotation of Earth. Correct, they do not move at all. You could build a structure pointed at the north star one night and if the structure doesn’t move, it points at the north star day and night season after season year after year forever, whether you can see the north star or not, it’s there. (The structure would be called a gnomon, if you care).
- All of the non-sun stars/constellations remain in the exact same latitude and therefore trace the exact same line through the sky each time Earth rotates, every day of our lives, no exceptions. The line a star traces through the sky at your location peaks at 90° – [your latitude] + [latitude of the star] always.
- Earth’s rotational axis is not tilted. Earth’s orbital plane around the sun is tilted! When orienting celestial objects, we are forced to choose what we consider “upright.” Earth’s gravity cannot dictate “upright” for celestial objects. If you imagine Earth’s rotational axis as upright, the north star remains fixed as “north” or “up” and the orbital plane is then tilted 23° meaning Earth “moves north and south” as it orbits, or moves “up and down.”
- The sun. slightly more complicated, but helpful because the sun is bright. What is a line of latitude? What does a line of latitude look like? The blindingly bright sun traces a line of latitude through the sky every day. On equinox days, the sun traces the 0° line of latitude (celestial equator) and on the solstices the sun traces the +/- 23.4° line of latitude. In between, the sun gradually traces lines of latitude from 0° to 23.4° to 0° to -23.4° and back to 0° again throughout the year. Each day the sun traces a slightly different line of latitude as Earth orbits.
- Nobody is good at three-dimensional spherical-angle geometry! Nobody! Astronomers are not good at it. Nobody is! Then why does the current zodiac constellation represent the constellation behind the sun that we cannot see?? Because nobody is good at three dimensional geometry! Astronomers for millennia past and still today use the sun as a “pointer.” Nothing in the sky points like the sun. The sun is such a bright “pointer” that you cannot see what is behind it – but remember that the stars do not move relative to each other so if you have some idea of what the starry sky looks like, and you know the current zodiac constellation, you can reference the rest of the starry sky off of the sun itself. “Pisces is shining bright this month!” True statement – even though Pisces is only up during the day because looking forward the sun means looking toward the current zodiac constellation. We are currently in Pisces. “The sun pointer is moving toward the constellation Aries.” Another true statement. The line the sun traces through the starry background as we orbit is called the “ecliptic.”
Once you have some firm ground to stand on, you can start to remember some more basics and build. If you get confused, re-read the above and remind yourself that many things in the sky do not change!
- Orion, the most widely-recognized constellation, is on the celestial equator. Therefore Orion rises directly east and sets directly west. Orion is “up” ~12 hours and “down” ~12 hours. Orion’s path peaks at 90° – [your latitude] above your horizon (directly overhead the equator). Also, Orion is visible from everywhere on Earth.
- Orion is directly south of the border of Taurus and Gemini. The Taurus Gemini border marks the northern hemisphere summer solstice, so on the summer solstice the sun points near Orion. On the winter solstice, Orion is high in the sky at midnight.
- Polaris, the north star, is located directly north at [your latitude]° above the horizon, always. Most people use the Big Dipper to find Polaris.
- The two stars in the Big Dipper aligned with Polaris point to the ecliptic at Leo near its border with Virgo, so near the sun’s location at the autumnal equinox.
- The Milky Way’s bright galactic center is among Sagittarius, specifically Sagittarius A. It is 29° south of the celestial equator so therefore peaks at 61° – [your latitude] in your sky (more visible in southern hemisphere). Being near the northern hemisphere winter solstice, it is most visible in northern hemisphere during summer.
Time v3 Clock Links
Read Time v3 with an Accurate Mental Model
- You are the observer in the center of the clock. Everything moves relative to the observer.
- The sun position on the clock represents the actual longitudinal position of the sun.
- Solar noon is noon on the clock. “Solar noon” and “clock noon” are one and the same. When the sun is directly overhead the observer, it is noon, and half of the day has passed.
- Sunrise and sunset are depicted and labeled. Sunrise marks time 0:00 each day and sunset marks the day length. The day length changes gradually throughout the year with the seasons.
- When the sun sets, the “official time” turns negative and begins to count down to sunrise. However, if you mark an event at +12:30 time v3 during an 11 hour day, +12:30 is visible on the clock even though the sun has set, the official time v3 is negative, and your event will be held in the dark. “+12:30” is still 12 hours and 30 minutes after sunrise and still a usable time.
- The moon position on the clock represents the actual longitudinal position of the moon. Moon directly overhead on the clock, the moon is directly overhead the observer, “moon noon.” Moonrise and moonset are off to the side, just like the sun. I am adding small moonrise and moonset lines in the next version.
- The moon phase is represented by the sun’s position relative to the moon and Earth, easily observable on the clock. Project the sun out to “infinity” and the sun points to the moon phase marked on the moon itself. Therefore the moon phase on the clock is determined just how it is in real life.
- The locations marked on the clock’s Earth represent prominent geographical features approximately every 15° longitude. Therefore the sun passes one of the geographical features every hour. If you want to know the approximate time at a different location, just imagine the observer on the clock is at the location with everything else right where it is. Tilt your head if it helps or physically turn the clock on its side.
- The sun pointing to the stars marks the seasons, just like in real life. The constellations on the clock are the constellations (official IAU) the sun points to throughout the year as Earth orbits. They are zodiac constellations on the ecliptic, for telling seasons, not the constellations on the celestial equator. The difference is minor (see below).
- The stars pass overhead on the clock when those stars actually reach their peak to the observer. Star noon on the clock is star noon in real life.
- Of note, the prominent constellation of Orion is on the celestial equator just south of the Taurus/Gemini border Orion borders both Taurus and Gemini. Therefore Orion is an excellent star reference to align the clock to real life.
- The thin white line behind the equinox in Pisces shows 1,000 years of precession of the equinoxes. Yes, one thousand years, one millennium, 500 years in the past and 500 years into the future. The equinoxes do not move very much.
Understand Celestial Movement by Knowing Less
Notes
- three buttons:
- 5040x with pause feature
- 21,600x with pause feature
- “sunrises / sunsets snapshots” time lapse
- useful sounds?
- add moonrise and moonset
- The horizons showing day length are the only indications of latitude. I want to keep it this way. 2D, time is the 3rd dimension.
- unify the new year globally making it the exact equinox. Focus locally, celebrate large events globally.
- clock ticks in background on phones? battery life?
- Digital doesn’t match graphic on some time lapses. Maybe only on past years?
- digital font size correct for computers and phones
- make “copy-able link” for the link generator
- 90° and 270° ecliptic longitude are the solstices, correct?
- astrolabe, Incan Inthuatana,
Fundamental Concept
Every movement of this clock is related to a naturally-occurring phenomenon. The sun, moon, and constellations are actually physically overhead the longitude physically shown on the clock. The only man-made concept is the unit of time: hours/minutes/seconds.
Within the constraints of being two-dimensional and using only concentric circle movement, the clock graphically displays celestial movement as accurately and with as much detail as possible in a way that promotes a practical mental model for the observer.
The horizons move to show the correct day and night length. They move in the correct direction to match the idea that the sun follows a longer path in the sky on longer days and shorter path on shorter days. In post-industrial time, noon is when the sun is directly overhead. This clock shows noon at the various world locations by being directly overhead the longitude. “Solar noon” is an industrial time concept.
The angle of the horizons does not directly correspond to the azimuth of the sunrise and sunset itself. For example, the sun being overhead a longitude location on Earth 100 degrees from your longitude when it rises does not mean the sun will rise 10 degrees north from east.
Two-dimensional is convenient for hanging on a wall, inexpensive to construct, can be displayed on a screen, and in reality people prefer 2D. 3D TVs never caught on. The outdoors is 3D enough.
Concentric circle movement is practical to construct and control. In addition, almost all the movement of the objects in the sky is due to the rotation of Earth.
Nature presents us with an infinity of detail that the clock could depict. Computers enable us to easily do this and most products show maximum detail. This clock selectively provides the user with just the basis required to comprehend celestial movement in order to inspire the user to abandon the technology for the outdoors and more fully appreciate natural reality.
The Observer
On this clock, all objects are referenced to the observer as though the observer is standing aligned to the rotational axis of Earth. “Aligned to the rotational axis of Earth” sounds like an unnecessary complication, but it means all the objects move (almost) continuously and you can tell time of day, day length, night length, moon phase, moon rise and set, seasons, constellation and star positions, and even approximate world times, all using an intuitive mental model.
The observer is at the center of the post-industrial clock.
Observer’s Imagination
Notice, the gnomon of a sundial is aligned to the rotational axis of Earth. The ancients knew how to think about this. If you want to be familiar with the movement of the Earth and the relative motion of the sky, you must align with the Earth. If you accept the one complication of aligning with Earth, all else naturally falls into place.
You might say gravity is the biggest obstacle to aligning yourself to Earth’s rotational axis. True. To eliminate the gravity problem, just imagine you are on the north pole. If you were sitting on the north pole during an equinox, you would see all the objects on the clock rotating around your horizon just like they do on the clock.
Rotation and Orbit
Notice “rotate” means an individual object rotates, and “orbit” means an object moves in a path around another object. Objects can rotate and orbit in different planes, but because of the way the solar system was formed, rotation is mostly closely aligned with orbit. One notable example of misalignment is the tilt of Earth’s rotation relative to its orbit around the sun.
The Sun, Horizons, and Time
The position of the sun determines all time-related items.
The rotational position of Earth is shown by the sun appearing to move relative to the observer. The position of the sun in relation to the eastern horizon and western horizon tells the time of day.
Day length is determined by the distance the sun must travel through the sky from the eastern horizon to the western horizon. Day length is shown by the position of the two horizons. Night length is the remainder of the 24-hour period as the sun returns to the eastern horizon. The horizons move because of the tilt of Earth and its orbit around the sun.
The sun points to the season on the backdrop of the stars. The 12 Zodiac constellations are used because they are aligned with Earth’s equator and are visible from most positions on Earth. The Zodiac seasonal periods are named based on when the constellation is aligned with the sun. Ironically, it is exactly during a particular Zodiac constellation’s season that the constellation is not visible in the night sky because it is directly behind the sun.
The stars move around the observer because of the rotation of Earth, like the sun. Because of the orbit of Earth around the sun, the stars actually appear to move slightly faster than the sun. In a way, the stars “chase” the sun across the sky. Because of this, the constellation that is low on the western horizon immediately after sunset indicates the next season. The constellation will “chase” the sun down, setting because of Earth’s rotation and then each successive night set four minutes earlier until it sets with the sun.
Moon phase is determined by the position of the moon relative to the sun. The position of the moon relative to the sun is immediately apparent on the clock giving the user an intuitive mental model of moon phase. The moon rises and sets independently of the sun, so there are separate horizons for the moon.
Relative to the Observer
The stars do not move relative to each other, so you can relate your favorite constellations to the Zodiac constellations to quickly know where they are if desired. The position of the Zodiac constellations on the clock are accurate relative to the observer. The observer need only adjust for latitude. If a constellation is directly overhead on the clock, it is directly south in the northern hemisphere or north in the southern hemisphere, or overhead on the equator.
Approximate world time is asking the question, “What time is it to other observers?” or “Where is the sun relative to other observers?” The user can look at the other cities on the clock and see where the sun is relative to them. If the sun is directly over another location on the clock, it is noon in that location. The sun is moving relative to other observers just like it is moving on the clock. If the sun appears directly to the side of another observer, it is near rising or near setting. If directly below, it is midnight to that observer.
Sun/Moon/Stars to Sundial to Pendulum to Quartz to Atomic Vibrations to Smartphones to Sundial to Sun/Moon/Stars
Progress is a cycle.
Pre-history: humans evolved with celestial objects ruling our lives and became familiar with them. The sun and moon are encoded into our genes in our circadian rhythm.
Thousands of years: humans quantified the movement of the sun with sundials, and used charts for the phases of the moon and seasons.
Industrial Revolution: humans used rudimentary machines to club our minds to submit to rigid schedules.
Post-Industrial Clocks: humans use advanced machines to conform technology to nature and re-connect with our natural selves.
Like this clock, the gnomon of a sundial is oriented parallel to the rotational axis of the Earth. If you called this clock an “indoor sundial” you are not too far off. However, “indoor solar, lunar, and celestial fully-automated schedule” would be more accurate. Therefore, is this new? No, but is anything new? Not according to the Bible,
Ecclesiastes 1
9 What has been is what will be, and what has been done is what will be done, and there is nothing new under the sun. 10 Is there a thing of which it is said, “See, this is new”? It has been already in the ages before us.
Life is a cycle and it is time to revisit some of our past. We now have the time and resources to do it.
Knowing what the sky looks like can certainly be done with charts, phone apps, websites, maps, but to develop a useful mental model, you need to periodically and quickly see something that is practically relatable to practical day-to-day events. This is our natural ability that was erased by industrial time. Industrial time is great for rigid old obsolete machines to cheaply give us rigid schedules, but computers enable machines to imitate nature and can enable us to re-connect with nature rather than brutally beating nature out of our minds with the incessant ticking of pendulums and gears. Computers can be better, let’s use them.
history, manufacturing, time, astronomy,
Respect Literacy: Blogs are the New Book
Like books, personal blogs seem to have an innate ability built-in to the medium to bring out the best in people.
Do not confuse blogs with social media.
I have been keeping this list of my friends’ websites for several years now. Many are small business sites (pillars of society), none are vanity-driven, and all of the information is thoughtful, meaningful work by people who care. All of it is good. It represents the cream of 100+ years of electronic communication. That’s a strong statement and it’s true.
If you became literate and started reading books 500 years ago after the Gutenberg Press, you got ahead. If you understand the power the internet brings to people by enabling blogs, you get ahead.
No Mask Zone
This year, being polite requires being a bit forceful. As I have said from the beginning along with most people I know, there is a no-mask zone around me. Under no circumstances, directly or indirectly, will I be the reason you are required to cover your face. Breathe free, friends.
That said, there are many people who support wearing masks. We have to have a way of dealing with it consistently. My responses all year to even an allusion to mask support have been harsh. I have even been harsh if I perceive a failure to actively resist. After having had time to cool off, my only regret is the herd mentality stampeding to “safety” behind face underwear.
Being a divisive subject, I have decided the best course of action is active listening. Therefore I will directly quote the mask support I have heard and repeat it as best I understand it.
Active Listening 1
Mask supporter: “Masks are polite.”
What I hear: “Cover your face – and I do not consider it impolite to tell someone to cover their face.”
Very well. You will be safe. Do not come within two meters of me.
Active Listening 2
Mask supporter after I suggested that businesses post whether they require masks or not: “Of course businesses can post a requirement for shirt and shoes, ‘no shirt no shoes no service,’ but masks?!? … Obviously the government has to step in and mandate that everybody wear masks in public.”
What I hear: “My fear and belief in masks supersede a business owner’s right to operate with open faces. Cover your face.”
I hear you loud and clear – so now don’t come within two meters of me.
Active Listening 3
Mask supporter during a discussion about the various prevention measures: “Come on man. Masks aren’t political. It’s science. Of course governments have to require masks.”
What I hear: “No discussion. We have all agreed that all security trumps all individual rights. Cover your face.”
Loud and clear. Keep your distance from me.
Active Listening 4
Mask supporter admitting that outdoor masking is probably a waste: “OK yeah, they probably don’t do anything outside, but we need to show we’re all together in this.”
What I hear … ? “Join my cult. We cover our faces everywhere. Cover your face if you are near me. My government will require it.”
I’m a bit confused to be honest, but you said it. Keep your distance.
Active Listening 5
Mask supporter relating mask wearing to health codes in restaurants: “So you believe people should ignore the mask mandate, which is a health code, and not wear masks? Isn’t that a slippery slope of people not following health codes?”
What I hear: “I think I’m clever. Cover your face. My government will require it.”
You are a real threat because people really will buy that line if the TV says it.
Active Listening 6
Mask supporter: “Science says cover your face.”
What I hear: “The TV says cover your face, so I do.”
Take your “science,” your science, your TV, and your mask, and shove them all up your ass … and keep your distance from me.
Mask Etiquette
Having considered, the following categories apply for me:
People who actively respect a human being’s right to show their face while interacting, including whatever “risk” is involved: I appreciate your friendship more than ever.
People wearing masks. Depends who, where, and why.
People who fail to actively resist masking: I strive to be stronger. Writing about it is a form of resistance, hope this helps.
Any indirect support for any mask mandate: you are a mild threat. I am actively planning to avoid falling victim to any government you vote for.
Direct support, any enthusiasm for masking, or any in-person social pressure to wear a mask, even out of a perceived sense of duty: I will do my best to maintain two meters from you for the rest of my life.
Quit TV Cold Turkey
I quit TV cold turkey about 17 years ago, in 2003. I was about 20 years old. I had always watched some TV up to that point with whatever free time I had, maybe an hour a day. I did not consciously quit. I just moved and never bought a TV. I still watch movies if they are planned and I sit down to watch one I’ve chosen with friends. I also watch live sports, which I prefer to watch in a public place like a bar.
Stage 1: “I’m Missing Something”
For several years, I felt like I was missing something. I felt like people knew something I didn’t know.
Stage 2: “No, They’re Missing Something”
Maybe 5 years in, I started realizing I was getting all the relevant news within a few days just by hearing conversations. I wasn’t missing anything, I was just getting it second-hand. Instead of “news” I was seeing people’s emotional reactions to the news and it was very disconnected from real life. For the first time, I felt like they were missing something, not me.
Stage 3: Produce for Perspective
In 2014 I started a blog with the goal of being able to at least amateur produce every type of media available. In 2018 I spent a lot of time learning to record and edit video. That gave me really interesting perspective.
Often when watching a movie now I’ll switch to imagining the studio set around the scene instead of the movie plot and it transforms their acting into an awkward situation. You have to be a bit maniacal to act as intensely as actors do in a movie studio full of colleagues.
The teleprompter is the other thing I notice. For a monologue looking into a camera, one minute continuously is about the max I can memorize to record. Watching news anchors or commentators go on and on for 20 minutes reading a teleprompter with feeling as though they really believe what they are saying it is creepy. The teleprompter is obvious if you have ever tried to record a message into a camera.
Stage 4: Twilight Zone
Within the last few years I’ve more and more gotten the feeling that I’m John Boyega’s character from the movie The Circle. Fun to imagine I’m a hero of course! I still see people’s emotional reactions to news and TV shows that are mostly fictional or over-dramatized – but now those emotional reactions are widespread enough that they are literally the news. It’s bizarre.
With the coronavirus recently I made a concerted effort to systematically find the most truthful, reliable, objective news sources possible. It is helpful to have actionable information.
TV I Have Seen
I can nearly list all of the TV I have seen for 15+ years and why I saw it.
In early 2008 my roommate had several seasons of The Office on DVD. We binge-watched 3 seasons in a weekend. That’s the last TV show I really got hooked on and binge-watched.
In 2009, my roommate had a TV and I watched a lot of Family Guy by default because he watched it all the time. It was comical how little else we watched. Pure random Family Guy episodes. 90+%.
In 2011-2013, I remember that several of the new type of TV series started coming out because people were binging Dexter, Eastbound and Down, Breaking Bad, Always Sunny in Philadelphia. The conversations sounded like fun but watching the shows sounded like a chore to me. I never did. I would say by this point I had completely lost interest. I was irreversibly uninterested.
I played a video game for the last time in ~2001. I played Age of Empires for about four hours straight. I attended a swim meet afterward and I was imagining the people to be little characters from the game. I haven’t played anything since other than maybe Wii at friends’ houses.
Gone Sailing
On 2 November 2020 I decided to depart the corporate career path (energy engineer) for the rest of my life. My knee-jerk solution was to learn to sail and make sailing my occupation somehow. Regardless of what I do, I made the decision because of a fundamental idea: I am convinced that true progress in the next several decades will not be in new technologies, but in learning to use the existing technologies in a more wholesome way. As I went down the list of categories on my blog, I realized my decision affects almost every category.
Brazil Now What Migration Series: I once again do not know where I will go.
English Lessons: language is basic. Will I teach English from a sailboat?
Industrial Change Surfing: Industrial Change Surfing is about decisions – this was an enormous decision based on industrial changes.
Rage and Frenzy Politics: I believe the current polarized divisive politics partly arise from frustration with the diminishing returns of tech. (A pause for sailing is in order!)
Real Estate: boats are floating real estate. (the tax is maintenance!)
Travel: Sailing is the oldest form of long-distance water travel!
Ventures Quarterly: I have not been faithful to quarterly updates lately, but this obviously represents a ventures update.
Interview with NBC 4
I encountered these fear-mongering corporate media goons while I was walking home from lunch.
Here is some real mask discussion:
https://nathanruffing.com/some-clarity-on-masks/
#BeOutside #OpenTheWindows #MagicMaskFalseSecurity
Anthropogenic Coronaviruses: A Unified Novel Coronavirus Origin Theory
Update ~November 2025: I am now sure COVID was a psychological operation. Many believed that during the event. I did not because I thought the naturally occurring story made sense. I kinda still think it makes sense for such a disease to develop naturally, but I think it was on purpose.
A theory is a question and I invite you to ask the question with me. If there is a clear reason why this cannot be true, or some part can’t be true, let me know and I will adjust. Send me your source please. I have been adjusting since the beginning based on the best sources I can find and I publish my current understanding for the purpose of being challenged. Thank you.
Being that this is a proposal of a twenty-plus-year phenomenon, it helps to review some medium-term urbanization and disease history for perspective.
Seeking Challenges
- Where has there been a major increase in human contact with living, breathing animals indoors? This would be the strongest possible challenge, especially if the animals were the ones most commonly identified as the culprit, bats or camels.
- The strongest challenge I have received is a description of unregulated industrial-scale animal food processing having increased in the same newly-modern countries where I am blaming human indoor economy. Valid challenge, but the animals are not live, indoor, or near the same scale as the humans working indoors.
- Another challenge has been the description of mutation through hybridization between human / non-human animal viruses. Okay, this is the currently accepted explanation, but what about mutation between viruses carried by two different humans? We have a new trend and humans are the ones newly living in the conditions where the virus spreads most on a massive scale: indoor, living, breathing humans.
Summary
Coronaviruses are spreading asymptomatically among a hugely-increased population of indoor humans, developing and evolving unnoticed for years, then chance mutations are causing outbreaks. SARS in 2002, MERS in 2012, and COVID-19 – all three related coronaviruses – are connected by the same progenitor: many many indoor humans sharing “exhaled breath sewage.”
Coronaviruses have passed among humans and various non-human animals for millennia. When coronaviruses caused illness, it was mostly mild illness, little more than an inconvenience to the hosts. The relationship was mostly commensalistic – that is until humans brought the coronaviruses indoors. The coronavirus population exploded in the fertile environment of air-conditioned urban centers and it was the historically well-cultivated commensalistic relationship with humans that enabled coronaviruses to be the first evolutionary beneficiaries of the new scale of man-made air-tight-indoor-air environment. The abrupt explosion of indoor space enabled by indoor economy – especially in high-density tropical areas – propelled life on its natural evolutionary path toward new disease-causing coronaviruses. “Viral gravity” is evolutionary gravity. Three new coronaviruses have emerged in under two decades, and indoor exhaled breath sharing is not just one primary spread vector. Indoor exhaled breath sharing is the evolutionary mechanism. Large-scale indoor exhaled breath sharing is the primordial soup, the origin, the creator, the genesis. Novel coronaviruses are the very first sprouts of new life in the Anthropocene.
Assumptions
Some of the following assumptions are difficult to quantify, but I believe so extreme as to be self-evident. Even if some specific assumptions are imperfect, the trend is clear.
- Three novel viruses in under twenty years is extremely abrupt by an evolutionary time period standard. It represents a new trend and requires something common to the three for explanation that is new.
- The number of humans spending time indoors has increased abruptly in the last three to five decades. The increase has been coincident with the emergence of new respiratory viruses. Increased number of humans indoors has led in time the emergence of the new viruses sufficiently to indicate it is a cause of virus evolution.
- Guangdong Province, China, Saudi Arabia, Jordan, Qatar, and Wuhan, China all use a lot of air conditioning, in contrast to how they interacted before recent development.
- Being relatively new, many of the origin cities’ buildings are built “air-tight” for central air conditioning instead of retro-fitted. Their buildings are not drafty or leaky.
- Evolutionary genetics has shown that zoonotic transmission is involved in virus evolution. However, this has not been definitively proven to be the final mutation into a disease-causing agent.
- Are coronaviruses known to evolve quickly? I believe they are. If they do evolve quickly, it would explain why coronaviruses are the first to take evolutionary advantage of the new collective virus reservoir of the human indoor economy.
- Evolutionary science can be subjective / statistical. Evolution relies on chance and succeeds with large numbers of chances for low-probability events to occur. A “macro-view” is more effective at identifying an evolutionary cause by identifying a large number of chances for a low-probability event to occur than is a “micro-view,” which attempts to find the actual single event itself. The critical “single evolutionary event” in these cases almost always occurred “somewhere in the world, anytime, anyplace” – and at least a month in the past with no trained observer present.
- Everything the virus does is consistent with thriving indoors. Our indoor economy has domesticated a virus like an invisible indoor pet that has now grown so numerous that is has turned against us and begun to make us sick.
- We will never find a “patient zero” for a virus that seems to float on the wind, but the virus exists, and the answer can be the clearly-observable shift in the wind itself.
The Theory: “Anthropogenic Coronavirus Evolution Theory”
In the early 21st century, a new type of virus emerged causing three distinct outbreaks between 2002 and 2020. Coronaviruses, which had passed among humans and non-human animals since the beginning of time, found new fertile development ground in urban skyscrapers built air-tight with central air conditioning that allowed exhaled breath sharing to go mainstream within humanity. Human indoor economy led to a new way of sharing “exhaled breath sewage,” which in turn led to new virus evolution.
Zoonotic leap among humans, bats, camels, palm civets, raccoon dogs, ferret badgers, pangolins, and domestic cats in markets and other various locations of human / non-human animal interaction was originally theorized as the primary evolutionary requirement and origin of the viruses. Matching the virus to infected animals along with genetic markers suggested that animals were the primary reservoir. However, it was later determined that human breath sharing on a large scale in dense, newly-developed, warm-weather cities with skyscrapers built air-tight for central air conditioning was the primary reservoir and original source for all affected species in these outbreaks. Humans indoors first developed viruses with mostly asymptomatic spread hyper-enabled by large air-tight buildings. Humans passed viruses to animals, some of whom got sick, but not until humans got sick did humans finally look in the animals, find matching viruses, and point to the animals as the source.
However, as the novel coronaviruses repeatedly appeared and developed into a trend, humans noticed that the small change in human-animal live indoor contact was insufficient to explain multiple similar occurrences of indoor live human respiratory viruses. Zoonotic transmission therefore lost favor as an explanation for evolutionary development of novel coronaviruses.
The Virus Reservoir and Evolutionary Mutation
The fact that the three new viruses are all suspected to have an excellent ability to circulate among humans without causing disease indicates that asymptomatic spread among indoor humans is the reservoir. The evolutionary mutation is that the virus mutates from a benign virus to a disease-causing virus. The new scale of the indoor humans reservoir is providing the large number of chance events required for evolution.
We have three new viruses. The viruses are related. There has to be a new type of reservoir to explain it. The animals have not changed a lot. The human coronavirus reservoir has changed a lot! The critical mutations are among millions of human-human transfers and multiplication.
Naming Note
- The alternate names for the viruses of “EBSRS-CoV-1,” “EBSRS-CoV-2,” and “EBSRS-CoV-3” are used to illustrate the point and unify the viruses. The names refer to SARS-CoV-1, MERS-CoV, and SARS-CoV-2 respectively.
2019: Exhaled Breath Sewage Respiratory Syndrome Coronavirus 3
- AKA EBSRS-CoV-3 (formerly SARS-CoV-2)
- First identified in Wuhan, China.
- Wuhan China lies near 31 degrees north latitude and has more than 3.5 months per year with average daily high temperature above 27°C.
- Wuhan China ballooned in population from 3.5 million in 1990 to over 8 million in 2020, massive new urbanization and indoor economy.
- EBSRS-CoV-3 is known to transmit well through aerosols asymptomatically among humans, consistent with many transmission events for evolutionary purposes, especially in enclosed rooms.
- Zoonotic transmission not yet conclusively verified despite global effort.
- Cruise ships are a known vector, with their closed ventilation systems.
- There are wet markets in Wuhan, but the virus seemed to “spread everywhere quickly out of nowhere,” with no clear connection to animal contact.
2012: Exhaled Breath Sewage Respiratory Syndrome Coronavirus 2
- AKA EBSRS-CoV-2 (formerly MERS-CoV)
- First identified in Saudi Arabia. Later determined that it possibly circulated in Jordan as well. https://www.cdc.gov/coronavirus/mers/about/index.html
- Saudi Arabia is a petro-state (cheap energy for air conditioning) that has experienced a population explosion since 1980. Now 80% of its inhabitants live in 10 major urban centers, mostly in the southwest of Saudi Arabia, well within the tropics.
- Qatar was another potential origin, a very hot petro-state country.
- EBSRS-CoV-2 is also thought to pass asymptomatically among humans.
- Known to infect camels and bats. Transmission from camels to humans has been observed, but no “patient zero” identified in relation to camel contact.
2002: Exhaled Breath Sewage Respiratory Syndrome Coronavirus 1
- AKA EBSRS-CoV-1 (formerly SARS-CoV-1)
- Outbreak started in Guangdong Province, China.
- Guangdong Province lies in latitude very near the Tropic of Cancer.
- Just north of Hong Kong, Guangdong Province is home to two of the top four Chinese cities by GDP. Guangdong Province’s GDP is larger than Spain’s GDP, and would be the 13th country in the world by GDP. Lots of humans working indoors. Indoor economy.
- This first outbreak appears to have been more closely and reliably connected to markets and wild animals than the later two outbreaks. However, the origin is inconclusive due to CCP blocking of WHO officials for several weeks or months after the emergence of the outbreak.
Question: were the first cases in “air conditioning months” in all three outbreaks?
Question: does polluted air contribute?
Exhaled Breath Sewage Coronavirus Evolution Theory Explains the Following Better than the Zoonotic Transmission Theory
- Why both EBSRS-CoV 2 and 3 spread so well asymptomatically among humans. Asymptomatic spread was required for virus evolution months or even years prior to identification as a disease-causing agent. People often reference the idea that a disease spreads more successfully with a low mortality rate because the host is alive to spread. Asymptomatic spread is zero mortality, which is commensalistic, which is the ideal relationship for evolving.
- Why all three of the viruses originated in relatively warm, newly-developed cities with exploding indoor economy partially enabled by air conditioning.
- Why three new respiratory diseases have emerged in just 20 years coincident with urban population explosion in warm regions with air-tight buildings and air conditioning.
- Why the three new coronaviruses, that supposedly came from zoonotic transmission from different animals, are so closely related to each other. We have a very specific trend, there is probably a very specific, related cause.
- Why EBSRS-CoV-3, the most transmissible of the three new viruses, is so mild. It gradually increased in severity as it evolved quickly until concentrating in a large city, Wuhan, China, which may or may not have been the true origin.
- This theory is not completely at odds with zoonotic leap being an evolutionary aid to the virus development.
- Maybe there are multiple, even hundreds, thousands, or millions of significant virus mutation events. Maybe the world has been widely infected with a mostly benign, asymptomatic form of the virus that teeters on the edge of a disease-causing mutation that occurs relatively often. Maybe any pandemic involving a brand new virus acts differently from a long-time established, maturely evolved virus. Maybe a new virus relies more on mutation and evolution continuously and therefore acts differently in predictable as well as inherently unpredictable ways. We are not dealing with a turtle virus, established in its ways after having survived millions of years of evolutionary change with its simple “head in the shell” trick. We are dealing with a young rabbit being chased by a puppy darting in every direction not knowing where to go and therefore going everywhere changing frantically at every random turn.
- Maybe the vitamin D deficiency correlation with COVID-19 fatality does not mean vitamin D deficiency is a comorbidity but rather a second, related symptom that is correlated with being indoors and having been exposed to a higher infectious dose of the virus.
Zoonotic Transmission Virus Evolution Theory Explains the Following Better
Update: somebody help out here because trying to describe zoonotic transmission evolution theory makes it a joke. It is absolutely laughable we humans are trying to point to animals as a source.
But I will try, here we go:
- The zoonotic transmission theory says that a virus circulates among an animal population as a reservoir until it mutates by chance and gains the ability to infect humans. Once it infects humans, it causes disease.
Or
- Two similar viruses, one human and one non-human animal, infect the same cell in a host, hybridize by replicating together, and henceforth infect humans causing disease.
And…
It makes perfect sense so far, but I’m at a loss attempting to seriously continue:
- Human-animal contact has increased on an unprecedented scale along with mass global urbanization. The viruses have started in poor countries with under-regulated food processing industries. The new scale of these markets yields enough increased zoonotic transfer to produce three new viruses in 20 years.
- OK, but live human-animal contact? Indoors?
- Are there new indoor markets? Why airborne? Why the seemingly lightest fastest aerosol-borne viruses possible?
- Humans have gotten sick with a virus that spreads primarily indoors. If we want to say this came from animals, we need to see live camels and live bats breathing indoors, enclosed with humans. This virus did not crawl from dead bat meat into somebody’s mouth and then suddenly in just a few virus generations spread tiny virus wings and infect the world of humans, airborne, indoors all at once. Did flying fish get stranded on land, sprout lungs in a generation, and lo! mammals? No. Did some ancient monkey-sailors get caught at sea, sprout a blowhole on top of their head and start swimming, lo! whales? No. We need an intermediate environment. Unless you can show me some large-scale enclosed indoor breathing animal markets, you’re debunked. I can show you plenty of indoor breathing human virus markets: they are called cubicles, call centers, housing complexes, public transit, skyscrapers – modern human cities and also clearly recognizable as Every. Single. Confirmed. Serious. COVID-19 outbreak.
- Note: Don’t suddenly tell me hoards of people are hanging out in bat caves. Show me a modern widespread market-driven caveman-bat-batman movement of at least 10 million people and we’ll talk. It still would not explain the camels anyway. Does the Arabian Peninsula have tons of closed-air camel garages for the wealthy now? They have never heard of Ferrari’s? The camel shit is whisked off the floor by robots or what? Would the camels even put up with that? Would humans hang out for hours in such a garage? I’m not buying it.
- The only reason wet markets and China’s under-regulated food processing industry exist at the scale at which these species transfers are more likely is the world’s mass urbanization.
- Genetic history marker studies? Do the zoonotic transmission claims based on genetics hold up to the scrutiny that they have been influenced by pervasive confirmation bias from the beginning? We lack conclusive cause-effect evidence to support critical genetic assumptions.
- Hybridization by a single host being infected with two coronavirsuses, which hybridize as they multiply together within the cells? Okay, but three times in 20 years? Roll snake eyes three times in a row, go. I’ll be checking your dice.
- Does zoonotic leap novel coronavirus evolution stand up against the idea that it still could play a secondary role in the evolutionary process? Does zoonotic leap fit in as only 10% of the process instead of 90%? I think it fits just fine in 10% of the solution, second-place to the obvious.
- The supporting evidence for the zoonotic transmission origin theory is scant relative to the monumental efforts at collecting it. I feel justified being unsatisfied.
- This theory appears to be an outdated assumption that has survived only by momentum of past convention. “Of course, humans get new viruses from animals,” – that is until they give new viruses to animals.
- Observed recent changes in human-animal contact is not new enough or extreme enough to explain a major new evolutionary trend of three new viruses. This is especially true with respect to indoor human-animal contact. It is more especially true also when compared with the recent explosion in indoor human-human breath sharing contact.
Confirmation Bias Toward Zoonotic Transfer Evolution
- There is a strong – bordering on fanatically blinding – confirmation bias for the zoonotic leap virus evolution theory among the scientific community. A single piece of evidence for zoonotic transmission or discovery of similar virus in non-human animals is often regarded as the “case closed smoking gun.” This prevents further research and discovery of the true cause.
- There is a natural aversion to identify humans as a “virus reservoir.”
- “Viruses are nature. Viruses have to come from nature. We are not nature, we are people!” Recognize that? Pretty familiar. That is people being ridiculous.
- It is so widely ingrained into our psyche that, “If a virus were there, we would be sick,” that we ignore asymptomatic spread as the potential evolutionary origin of new viruses.
- No definitive patient zero has been identified in any of the three new coronavirus outbreaks. Connection to markets and animals was inevitable due to the strength of the confirmation bias.
Humans Indoors as a Spread Vector Versus Humans Indoors as the Evolutionary Mechanism
- “Transmission vector” has been poorly separated from “evolutionary cause.” Air-tight buildings as a new transmission vector could indeed easily explain why zoonotic-leap-generated respiratory viruses are now suddenly a worse problem. Air-tight buildings would spread new zoonotic leap viruses fast. True. Of course. However, this easy explanation prevents people from recognizing that asymptomatic transmission is essentially equal to an evolutionary cause. Asymptomatic transmission can enable evolution, not just virus spread after evolution.
- If indoor exhaled breath sewage evolution theory is correct, one might expect COVID-19 to be seasonal and peak in the summer. However, this confuses spread vector with evolutionary mechanism. Still, if air conditioning is enabling evolution, opening the windows should be moved up the list of COVID-19 prevention measures.
If True, Exhaled Breath Sewage Evolution Theory Would Suggest
- That though reducing contact with animals might possibly slow evolution, new coronavirus respiratory viruses will continue to emerge with or without animal contact as long as humans spend a lot of time in buildings breathing each other’s exhaled breath sewage.
- The global response to COVID-19 will (eventually!) include sanitation of indoor air. Sanitizing indoor air will not only slow the spread of COVID-19, it will slow the development of future respiratory viruses.
- Sanitation of indoor air should be the primary prevention measure against COVID-19 because it would also eliminate the evolutionary source of new disease-causing coronaviruses.
Air Conditioning Versus Heating – What’s the Difference?
Long story short, I cannot make an argument that there is a big difference between air conditioning and heating. Both air conditioning and heating lead to people spending time indoors sharing exhaled breath. The only difference with air conditioning is the recent increase in human-hours spent breathing indoors as a result of increased population in places that use air conditioning. Air conditioning enables large indoor economy.
- baseboard heat would not sanitize air
- The origin cities may not be rich enough for widespread air conditioning and I do not have that data to support.
- Is this valid: When a building is heated, heating sanitizes the air from viruses much better than cooling the air does? In a heater, the temperature spikes up in the furnace heat exchanger above where viral RNA survives well – what about baseboard heating though? In an air conditioner, the temperature spikes down when cooled, failing to break down viral RNA. Therefore, heated air-tight buildings do not act as a collective virus reservoir like air-conditioned buildings do. Is this true? Is this true enough? Questions on this one: types of heating, types of air re-circulation, actual amount of AC in origin cities, difficult to get this data. Is air conditioning simply providing the sheer indoor human numbers required and is independent of the type of indoor climate control?
- Too many details to make a separation between air conditioning and heating. Thanks to all the people who challenged me on this. This theory stands without it and is stronger without the weak link, which was never necessary.
Some Optimism – An Existing Prevention Measure Becomes the Solution
- Can entire cities open the windows in the summer and “sweat the curve flat”? This confuses evolutionary origin with spread vector, but still connected.
- A global standard of indoor air sanitation could completely eliminate the evolutionary virus reservoir “primordial soup” and stop the recent trend (three in just two decades) of novel coronaviruses. An air sanitation standard would certainly benefit in the fight against COVID-19.
- N95 air conditioner filters anybody?