All posts by Nathan Ruffing

All, Time v3

About Time v3 (Post-Industrial Time)

Post-Industrial Time, A Timeline of Progress

Time v1: Pre-Industrial Time, until ~1775

Without accurate clocks, one looks to the sun, stars, and moon as a reference for time. This is pre-industrial time.

Time v2: Industrial Time, 1775 – present

Captain James Cook, on his second voyage from 1772-1775 used a watch / chronometer, that cost a third as much as a ship cost at the time that was accurate enough to determine his longitude as he sailed around the world. The watch was called the K1. The K1 was designed by John Harrison, then Marcum Kendall successfully crafted a copy, and Kendall was rewarded by the British government. Basically, the K1 watch told Captain Cook that the sun was early or late as he traveled, something we would understand as “switching time zones.” Prior to this, Cook would have looked to the sun and not known “what time it is” in his home of England and would have continuously adjusted to the sun. By knowing “how early or late” the sun was, he had a steady reference, and Cook used the reference to calculate his longitude. Captain Cook continued to use the new watch for the rest of his travels as an indispensable navigational guide. This was the first time a person referenced a machine rather than celestial objects to determine the time. This is Industrial Time. This is the time format we are familiar with today. A century after Cook’s voyages, in 1884, at the International Meridian Conference, world leaders discussed and chose, …a meridian to be employed as a common zero of longitude and standard of time reckoning throughout the world. Time zones were born. Industrial Time calculated by machines effectively replaced nature to determine “what time it is” and we never looked back. Until now.

Time v3: 2018 and Beyond

Machines are now flexible enough to give us a time format that is accurate and precise while still remaining relevant to the natural world around us. Enter Time v3 (Post-Industrial Time). The time v3 at your location is: During the day, the amount of time, in the standard hours and minutes to which we are accustomed, since the sun rose. Sunrise occurs at time 00:00. Time v3 also includes the day length for reference. Sunset occurs when the time equals the day length. Midday is half that amount of time, and the sun will always be directly in the north or south at midday (or overhead). Example: The time is now sunrise plus hh:mm:ss. The day length is hh:mm. The night length is hh:mm. At night, the time v3 is the amount of time until the next sunrise. At night time v3 counts down from the total night length to zero. Example: The time is now sunrise minus hh:mm:ss. Tomorrow’s day length is hh:mm.

Time v3 Clocks for Various Locations Here

  You will immediately notice that post-industrial time is location-specific. It is meant to be used locally, only with people who are within a normal day’s commute of you. Within that space it varies only a few minutes. It can be used within a city and surrounding suburbs for example. It can be used to set the time that employees arrive at work in order to have them arrive at a reasonable hour with respect to nature, the whole year round. It is not useful for coordinating flight arrival times, phone calls outside your city, etcetera. Post-industrial time does not replace industrial time. Industrial time is still useful and in fact, industrial time makes it easy for computers to calculate post-industrial time. An exception is that post-industrial time will make daylight savings time changes obsolete. Post-industrial time needs industrial time, and it improves on industrial time. It uses industrial time and the flexibility of machines (computers) to give us a time that is more natural.

Post-Industrial Time, Live It Love It

Post-industrial time connects us with the people around us, who we can relate to in person, by bringing to attention what we share with our local friends: sunrise, sunset, midday, longer and shorter periods of light and darkness. Post-industrial time puts nature back where it belongs, ahead of the machines and our man-made conventions by measuring our industrial lives using natural events rather than measuring natural events with industrial inventions. Post-industrial time forces the machines to adapt to us, rather than the other way around by directing the machines to give us time that is based on nature. Post-industrial time is fun by shaking up something we thought to be older than the hills. Post-Industrial time is a better future by remembering the past.

Keep Industrial Time!

I am not opposed to Industrial Time. I believe it should remain, and Industrial Time should continue to be used in its current state in many situations. Industrial Time works well in an industrial, global world! However, Industrial Time is new, weird, arbitrary, and disconnected from the natural events it measures. It should be treated as such, and it should have its own name, Industrial Time.

Post-Industrial Time Clock Projects

  • https://nathanruffing.com/timev3/
  • Android app: currently on github
  • Javascript version for website: currently on github.
  • Contact nate@rr34.us for access to the repositories.
  • Physical clock on a Raspberry Pi: under development
  • i-phone app: Swift?
  • Aaron’s Raspberry Pi

For Developers

We are actively coding in order to enable the use of Post-Industrial Time with clocks.

Post-Industrial Time Coding Notes

At a given location, the post-industrial time is:

Daytime

If daytime at location, i.e. the sun is up / above the horizon. i.e. the most recent event was a sunrise rather than a sunset, then the post-industrial time is: Sunrise + hh:mm:ss. The day length is hh:mm. The night length is hh:mm. Where the sunrise is the most recent sunrise at that location. The total day length is included for the current period of daylight for reference.

Nighttime

If nighttime at location, i.e. the sun is down / below the horizon. i.e. the most recent event was a sunset rather than a sunrise, then the post-industrial time is: Sunrise – hh:mm:ss. Tomorrow’s day length is hh:mm. The night length is hh:mm. Where the sunrise referenced is the next sunrise to occur at that location, and the amount of time is the amount of time until that event. It counts down to zero at night. The total night length should also be included for the current period of nighttime.

The Polar Regions

The issue arises in the polar regions where the sun does not set during a particular industrial calendar date / rotation of the earth. When this is the case, the post-industrial time still continues to count up since the sun last rose above the horizon, and the day length is still the total time until the sun sets. Near the poles, the sun may remain above the horizon for months at a time. This means that the post-industrial time WOULD reach over 4,000 hours. Half of a year is 4,380 hours. In the polar regions, when the day length exceeds 24 hours, the unit “rotations” must be introduced and the post-industrial time becomes: Sunrise + rr:hh:mm:ss. The day length is rr:hh:mm. One rotation = 24 hours. *See note. This is required in order for the post-industrial time to continue to have meaning with respect to where the sun is in the sky. In the arctic region, the most recent sunset will have been in the south, and therefore the rr value will tick up approximately when the sun crosses south. As the sun circles around just above the horizon (arctic region), the sun will be in the west at about xx:06:xx:xx, north at ~xx:12:xx:xx, east at ~xx:18:xx:xx, cross south again at ~+1:00:xx:xx. This will be true for the entire duration of a multiple rotation day. Day length [should be?] within a few minutes of when the rr value ticks up and day lengths will be within a few minutes of multiples of 24 hour periods. *Note, this is all relative to the sun and not relative to the stars, don’t try to get clever and use a “sidereal day” for the number of rotations. The rotations are relative to the sun.

All, Nate TV, The Columbus Commuter Biker

The Ultimate Commuter Bike Two

Bike to work, because driving cars everywhere makes us soft and weak.

-Nathan Ruffing, January 2014, from The Ultimate Commuter Bike

On my last Ultimate Commuter Bike, I gave links to all of the products. It is very easy to find these items online, but I recommend that you go to your local bike store with this list and use it to order some of the items through the store. You get a lot of good advice buying at the store and learn a lot about bikes while you are there.

It has been 4+ years and thousands of miles since my last Ultimate Commuter Bike post, and I am still using the same bike and same gear after zero tune-ups and very little basic maintenance.

The Ultimate Commuter Bike 2 Video Tour

Frame / Bike

$400: Motobecane Fantom Cross Uno (or similar)

www.bikesdirect.com

If you can find that specific model, it is a great bike. Otherwise, there are many options out there. You are looking for:

  • Single speed, not fixed-gear, or “fixie.” Make sure it has the freewheel.
  • You will find them under cyclocross or hybrid bikes.

Good bikes are sized by the inseam length. My height is 186cm (6ft 1.5in) and I ride a 61cm bike. 61cm is a size up for me, but I like the larger bike. If you are over 6ft tall, you have to go to a bike shop just to get a bike that really fits. Cheap bikes are made for average height people only. With a proper bike, your legs will extend to the pedals the way they should and you will be more comfortable and efficient.

Single speed bikes are great because:

  • they are very very low maintenance,
  • you get a variety of exercise throughout the ride,
  • it naturally limits your speed. Most of my friends who ride have crashed at least once. Some crashed fast. Trust them, you want to crash slow. Single speeds go reasonable speeds.
  • unless you live in a mountainous area, or are pulling a trailer, you really don’t need the extra gears and moving parts.

Seat

$40: Sette Flex-V

Sette makes various cushion sizes of this seat. They are the best.

Tires

$80: (for both, $35-$40 each) Continental flat resistant tires

Continental makes tires that have a teflon guard against flats. They are not cheap, but they are worth it!

Write down the tire size that comes on your bike. 700c is very common and is roughly equivalent to 29″.

Gears

Again, you want a single-speed that freewheels. You do not want a “fixie.”

Pedals

$50: (+ bike shoes if you don’t have them) Crankbrothers Eggbeater clip-in pedals

Info on the Crankbrothers website.

These pedals are typically used for mountain biking. They are ideal for commuter biking because:

  • They are very easy to clip in and out.
  • They allow your foot to rotate, avoiding any knee issues you might have with clips that are too rigid.
  • They can get dirty.
  • You can walk almost normally with the shoes as the cleat is not very big.

Bag and Rack

$120: Topeak MTX Trunkbag DXP. $80 for the bag, $40 for the rack

Information from Topeak.

You want to get the rack and bag from the same company so that the attachment works properly.

Tool

$35: Topeak Alien II bike multi-tool

Cold Weather Gear

First, ride less in the cold because it’s cold. Keep all this stuff together so that it’s not a nuisance to find when you want to get out and ride.

Thick socks are nice, but feet get cold in wind. They make foot covers for rain that also block wind and would help when very cold. I haven’t gone to that length yet. My feet get cold.

You want a tight-fitting under layer like UnderArmor because the wind can’t get between the clothes and your skin.

You want good thick gloves and a balaclava that can fit under your helmet. You want to cover up all exposed skin. Any exposed skin will have a 20mph sustained wind.

You want to be a little cold starting the ride because if you sweat too much, you will be very cold when you slow or stop.

All, Around the World in Columbus

Momo Ghar Restaurant: From the Himalayan Mountains to Columbus

We are finally going Around the World in Columbus.

We start in Asia, high in the Himalayan mountain range, crunched between the Indian subcontinent and the Tibetan plateau, where they make delicious dumplings in sauce that has just the right amount of spice. The country there is Nepal, and it is 7,700 miles from Ohio, but fortunately the restaurant Momo Ghar is within biking distance on Morse Road, inside Saraga International Grocery Store.

I have been to Mo Mo Ghar a few times now and my favorite dumplings are the #5 dish, Kothey dumplings.

Momo Ghar is award winning:

While you are there, walk around the Saraga grocery store. Inside Saraga feels like a foreign country. Hard to describe, but anybody who has been overseas and also inside Saraga will agree. Which foreign country? I can’t say specifically, it depends on which aisle you are in!

All, News Organized

2019 Calendar of Events, Sports, Etcetera

January

7: BCS National Championship Game

20 at 2341 Eastern: Total lunar eclipse.

26-27: Tennis Australian Open Finals

February

3: Super Bowl

March

17: March Madness selection Sunday

April

8: March Madness Championship Game

11-14: Golf Masters

May

16-19: Golf PGA Championship

June

8-9: Tennis French Open Finals

13-16: Golf US Open

July

13-14: Tennis Wimbledon Finals

18-21: Golf British Open

August

None

September

7-8: Tennis US Open Finals

October

Late Oct: Baseball World Series

November

2: Rubgy World Cup final. Rugby Union style = 15 versus 15. Starts at 0500 EDT Saturday morning (1800 in Yokohama, Japan. Our last day of daylight savings time)

11 at 0736 Eastern: Mercury transit in front of the sun visible in Columbus.

December

None

2019: No Olympics, World Cup, …

All

Nate’s Favorite Things 2018

I stopped ordering from Amazon in January of this year. That has presented some challenges, but overall it has been manageable. Wal-Mart has pretty much everything. As Jeff Bezos takes over retail, a newspaper, Washington DC, and even New York now, my favorite things are brick and mortar stores, many of which have online purchasing and in-store pick-up. I find in-store pick-up more convenient than getting a box to my door because the stores are nearby anyway.

1. Goodwill

Goodwill is a combination of unbeatable prices and quality products. Whether donating or buying, you are supporting good jobs and reusing / recycling excess stuff, much if which is brand new.

2. Kohl’s

Recently, I had to buy some clothes that were beyond the Goodwill scope and Kohl’s really came through for me. I ordered online for reasonable prices, they sent me an e-mail when it was ready for in-store pick up, and while I was at the store, I purchased some other items like socks out of convenience.

3. Less Stuff

Waiting to go to the store with a list until buying something often means you don’t buy it at all. Every time you buy something, you paid with your money–and your free space! Don’t forget the space!

4. Purging

I have kept to a one-out-one-in rule for all my possessions for several years now but this year I picked up the purging with continuous trips to Goodwill. As I near a reasonable amount of stuff that nearly fits in a 400sqft apartment, I realize how much had piled up. I used to get a good feeling from saving money. Now I enjoy spending money on consumable items, but even more, I enjoy freeing up space.

All, Real Estate

Real Estate Summary, November 2018

Lawrence Yun is the chief economist for the National Association of Realtors®. He is very straightforward and he applies numbers to what everybody is feeling in the real estate market. This 10 minute interview covers what most people are talking about: a “slow-down” in real estate, rising interest rates, new home building, consumer preferences, etc.

Click here for all real estate posts on this site.

All, UK

London Log, 26 Oct to 6 Nov 2018

The featured photo above is a professional selfie at Big Ben (under construction). For one billion better pictures of Big Ben, see the internet.

Just returned from an awesome trip to London. Thanks Graeme, Rosangela, Ludy Miller 😉 (Ludmila), and Henrique! and Erik and Nikita! Special mention to Henrique and Kevin. Here’s what we did:

  • When I arrived at Heathrow, the Philadelphia Eagles team arrived while I was waiting in the passport line. Eagles fans in line were cheering. We saw the fans at tourist sites that weekend throughout London.

London on the Thames from the plane, looking from the south toward the north.

  • Tower of London: awesome, get the Yeoman / “Beefeater” tour.
  • At Covent Garden, we saw Sergio the Covent Garden Magician. He was hilarious.
  • We went to Arsenal’s stadium during an away game. That was less than exciting.
  • The next day, we saw the Tottentham Hotspurs play Manchester City at Wembley Stadium. The NFL logo was still on the field from the Eagles game the day prior. Wembley is the site where England won its only World Cup in 1966. Tottentham lost 1-0.
  • Rented a car and drove to:
    • Stonehenge, saw the ancient pile of rocks from the modern highway.
    • Norman church in the countryside. There are countless of these that are about 1,000 years old.
    • Roman bath in Bath. This was a highlight. I did not realize just how much the Roman Empire reached Great Britain.
    • The Eastern Eye in Bath, excellent Curry and drinks.
    • Stratford on Avon, saw the birthplace of Shakespeare,
  • British Museum
    • It’s free.
    • The Rosetta Stone is a must see of course.
    • Hoxne Hoard, I also liked, which is by the Sutton Hoo ship burial. It is a collection of five bags that was buried around the collapse of the Roman Empire.
    • The Enlightenment Gallery, formerly called the King’s Library, was like a museum of the museum itself. Very cool.
    • There were pottery exhibits from Japan, Korea, and China. They were incredible.
    • Check out the coin shop across the street from the British Museum. I bought a Roman coin there, and a 2018 silver £2 coin.
  • The National Gallery: I would skip this if you’re not into art.
  • Harrod’s Department Store, did a little Christmas shopping.
  • Went to Greenwich where the Prime Meridian was set in 1884. I just missed the Maritime Museum there. This was the top thing that I failed to see! COOL watches:
  • Buckingham Palace: the Queen was not home.
  • Kensington Palace: kinda smawwll!
  • Churchill War Rooms. Definitely a highlight. Churchill is a hero of the 20th century.
  • St. Paul’s Cathedral, I went to a Sunday morning service there and it was incredible. Huge. The music resonates for 4-5 seconds throughout the church. Note: it is the Church of England.
  • Westminster, walked around the area, saw it from the outside.
  • Soho, walked around a little bit.
  • Bond Street, walked around a little bit. The most expensive item at Tiffany’s was a necklace costing £750,000.
  • Went to “quiz night” with friends of my friend Aaron. Turns out, they live one block, yes ONE BLOCK in all of London, from where I was staying with my London friends. Bassein Park Road!
  • There were fireworks for the 5th of November celebrations. I felt only slightly threatened as a Catholic.
  • I explored the London night life and on the final night discovered the fabled seven-layer club. Like Captain Cook, I accurately chart it here: It is called TigerTiger and it is near Piccadilly Circus Station. I counted the layers, there were seven, and it was impressive, but it was full of dudes, so I left.
  • Finished with a Shakespeare play, Romeo and Juliet, not at the Globe! We saw it at the Barbican Theatre. It was put on by the Royal Shakespeare Company and the high quality showed. Highlight of the trip.
All

Market Prediction Results, So Right and So Wrong

Check out this timeline of market predictions. I was WRONG. The guy who was right wishes to remain anonymous, so we’ll call him Sven Laarson.

Nate on 9 Dec 2015, S&P 500 = 2,048

Economists are like weathermen. They are barely better than basic observation most of the time. However, they are paying attention, and when a bad storm is imminent, they are going to see it a few hours ahead—long enough to get inside.
I am staying in cash, so here is a specific wager that I will make up to $1000 so I can put my money where my mouth is. I am willing to bet that we will see 1630 (-22%) before we see 2230 (+8%) in the S&P.

Sven on 29 Mar 2016, S&P 500 = 2,055

“Put me down for 2,750 before 1,630. Then we’ll see 1,500 eventually so you’ll get your buying opportunity in the next 30 years. You could miss out though. If it hits 3,300 before the next crash it could never see 1,630 again!

We’re in the first few years right now of the fabled ’15-year bull market’. Could be 20 years. Nothing but up. The dollar will get stronger too (short term, no 15 year bull for the dollar) so watch silver for a good low price to buy on. I’ll start buying at $9 an ounce.

There are less and less obstacles in the way of all markets around the world. Growth will continue even if our local politicians in USA encourage us to vote by convincing us to be divided. Things are going great and America will be made even greater again. The entities involved in the stock market of all entities have no obstacles. The system is built for them and it helps them bring the greatest good to the most people.

Any and every moment could bring a revolutionary invention and it would be available to the whole world within years. With that powering the markets up what could stop our human growth? Almost nothing.

GDP will be measured differently soon to account for all the value we get for free (without triggering a GDP recorded event). E.g. Facebook, Whatsapp, Google, etc. It will show that we are growing at an alarming rate and just not recording it properly. We are accidentally producing less carbon emissions without the great famishes and sacrifices that were warned. Technology. No one needed to force it. The US constitution released human potential. That worked because humans are inherently good. Even in Afghanistan in all out war the vast majority of people just want to work and keep what they earn. With those humans having more access to opportunity than ever in history why would the markets collapse in droves?

It isn’t a deck of cards. It is a rain forest. Very well balanced. Everything is specialized and as a whole the system is diversified (anti-fragile as you say).”

Nate on 15 Dec 2016, S&P 500 = 2,262

“Sven,

The forwarded message is the bet that I offered you guys almost exactly a year ago (I bolded the bet and put it in red). I’m glad you didn’t take it because I would have lost. The S&P closed above 2,230 on 7 December.

Of note, my man Hussman is especially negative this week:

 See you guys soon,

 Nate”

11 Jan 2018, S&P 500 = 2,768

Sven’s hyper-optimistic prediction of 2,750 from March 2016 came true in under two years. S&P 500 up 35% since the prediction.

June 2018, S&P 500 = 2,718

Nate is glad he invested in other things and didn’t short the market, but remains bearish.

“I still subscribe to the idea that the longer it takes the worse it will be.”

Sven is glad he stayed in the market and remains bullish.

After some discussion, we determined that since we didn’t agree on an amount for the bet, and we didn’t shake hands, only pride was won and lost.

11 Oct 2018, S&P 500 = 2,728

I write this post because the S&P 500 just dropped 152 points in two days and everybody noticed it and talked about it. 2,728 only brings us back to July however. and …

Since the day in December 2015 that I predicted “down 22%,” the S&P 500 is up 33%.

This weatherman is still predicting rain:

https://www.hussmanfunds.com/comment/mc181002/