Trapped-Air Transmission Theory

I describe an aggressive approach of socializing outdoors. I do this because people are already socializing – wherever they want. The idea that we will avoid gathering at all is busted as far as I am concerned. Being now established that we are going to gather, outdoors are great! Let’s gather outdoors! If you must be indoors with others, ventilate. Open the windows and turn on a fan.
Propositions
  • The virus spreads almost exclusively by aerosols.
  • The aerosols must be trapped indoors to concentrate enough to infect.
  • There is an extremely strong correlation between infectious dose and severity of the resulting infection.
Aerosol Versus Droplet Information Sources

They refer to it as “enclosed space” transmission also.

March 2020: https://www.pall.com/en/aerospace/commercial-fixed-wing/how-cabin-air-systems-work.html This is an excellent description of aircraft cabin air circulation.

3 April: Viral load, infectious dose, and severity discussion: https://www.newscientist.com/article/2238819-does-a-high-viral-load-or-infectious-dose-make-covid-19-worse/

1 Jun: Talks about K value of the virus and super spreading: https://www.theguardian.com/world/2020/jun/01/k-number-what-is-coronavirus-metric-crucial-lockdown-eases

29 June: https://news.harvard.edu/gazette/story/2020/06/air-conditioning-may-be-factor-in-covid-19-spread-in-the-south/

6 July: https://academic.oup.com/cid/article/doi/10.1093/cid/ciaa939/5867798, signed by 239 scientists from around the world. My #1 favorite. These people are heroes.

8 July: https://www.webmd.com/lung/news/20200708/air-conditioning-may-be-spreading-covid

July: https://wwwnc.cdc.gov/eid/article/26/7/20-0764_article

16 July, start at position ~49:00 with the super spreader question and listen about 10 minutes, two questions answered: https://www.cidrap.umn.edu/covid-19/podcasts-webinars/episode-16 If you prefer to read it, go to position 0:51:00 in the transcript and read to 0:53:00: https://www.cidrap.umn.edu/sites/default/files/public/downloads/ep._16_transcript.pdf

30 July: https://www.theatlantic.com/health/archive/2020/07/why-arent-we-talking-more-about-airborne-transmission/614737/ This is a long article unifying many of the well-known aspects of the virus into a clear image of the virus that clearly contrasts with the mainstream prevention advice.

17 August: https://eenvandaag.avrotros.nl/item/ventilatie-in-het-klaslokaal-op-orde-iedere-school-zou-een-co2-meter-moeten-hebben/ In Dutch. Talks about using CO2 meters to measure the buildup of exhaled breath.

25 August 2020: https://www.bmj.com/content/370/bmj.m3223 Their science is aerosol spread. Good, thank you, it’s obvious. They make an attempt to justify the complete bullshit (sorry, but that’s what it’s come to) droplet theory holdout by saying that it’s old entrenched science. Nah, it’s government-influenced convenient fear tactics to advance government control. Keep fighting the good fight.

31 August: https://www.dearchitect.nl/stedenbouw/blog/2020/08/hoogbouw-na-corona-101251735 (translates well to English) Dutch architecture magazine talking about high-rise buildings post-pandemic.

Seeking Challenges
  • Confirmed outdoor transmission absent of indoor possibility. This is difficult as most outdoor gatherings have an indoor component as well, but not impossible . The list of indoor transmission events is long and clear and they include whole buildings independent of physical distance. If the virus were spreading outdoors, there ought to be at least one purely outdoor event  to point to … ? Anybody?
  • Confirmed droplet transmission that cannot be explained by aerosol transmission. Difficult, nearly impossible, but would be a compelling challenge.

I personally believe my theory: Anthropogenic Coronavirus Theory, is correct, and EBSRS-CoV-3 (commonly known as SARS-CoV-2), that causes COVID-19, was born indoors. Because of that, I believe:

Summary: Trapped-Air Aerosol Spread Versus General Aerosol Spread

“Trapped-air” aerosol spread is a sub-category of the more general aerosol spread. The additional identifying property of trapped-air aerosol spread is that the aerosols must be trapped in an enclosed space and concentrated without being neutralized over time to transmit a virus.

Classifying the Evidence, Key Statements
  • Evidence for aerosols cannot be explained by droplet spread.
  • Evidence for aerosol transmission does not exclude the possibility of droplet spread.
  • Evidence for droplet spread could almost always be explained by aerosol spread.
  • Aerosol spread prevents us from excluding droplets.
  • To conclusively exclude droplet transmission would require attempting to transmit from close range while blocking aerosols. Even with willing participants this would be difficult. I believe the best way to test droplets would be to host an outdoor sports event with willing participants and random seating, then control the attendees in quarantine for 14 days after the event to determine the spread during the event in an outdoor setting.
  • The best evidence for droplet exclusion as a vector is the ineffectiveness of masks in Hong Kong, but this is admittedly inconclusive and has been largely ignored thus far.
COVID-19 Transmission Strengths

The virus’ transmission strength is that it is light and floats on the air. Aerosols. Yes. We know this. It is highly transmissible and it is airborne.

The virus spreads with enormous viral load in the spreader, filling up an enclosed space thoroughly from wall-to-wall, corner-to-corner, in a room or building as the spreader simply breathes and everybody breathing in the space is infected. The virus gradually concentrates in a room, floating on the air in tiny particles. Once the virus concentration reaches a critical infectious dose threshold, it infects everybody in the space regardless of proximity to the spreader because of dispersion and gradual increase of concentration!

Even physical distancing is not the answer!

COVID-19 Achilles Heel

The virus has an Achilles heel. The virus needs something very specific that we have the power to take away:

The virus’ weakness is that it is domestic. It is an indoor virus. It needs to be trapped indoors and concentrated to spread. It is a tiny fragile RNA virus. The virus needs its friends. The virus army needs strength in numbers. The virus’ weakness is that its infectious dose threshold is high and only can reach the infectious dose threshold indoors with efficiently trapped air and time.

Some Evidence by Correlation: Known Spread Vectors Are Indoors
  • Nursing homes
  • Meat packing facilities (workers are close to one-another in refrigerated space)
  • Cruise ships
  • Hospitals to health care workers. (hospitals have compartmentalized and filtered ventilation, but not as good as an outdoor breeze)
  • Prisons
  • Call centers
  • Restaurants
  • Large housing complexes in high-density cities – spreading in hallways and through walls??
  • Entire cities with public transit and skyscrapers.
  • Young people crowding beaches are probably also hanging out indoors after a long day in the sun. Duh. You can show pictures of them outdoors but there is an indoor component as well.
  • The major proven spreaders are indoors, not outdoors.

EBSRS-CoV-3 / COVID-19 is domestic! It was born in air-conditioned space. It spreads in air-conditioned space. It lives in air-conditioned space.

We could not spread this thing faster if we tried. The virus knows us better than we know ourselves. We concentrate exhaled breath around us on purpose for efficiency in air conditioning and COVID-19 loves it!

The Solution

Be outside. If not, open the windows. Divide and conquer. Send COVID-19 outside to die. Release the virus pressure switch. Spread the enemy’s troops far from their logistical lifeline, which is concentrated exhaled breath. Go to the beach! Go to parks! Sit on an outdoor patio! A simple light breeze is your friend and protector!

Double protect. Turn on a fan. Disperse the virus army.

Triple protect. Let in as much UV sunlight as possible. Neutralize the virus army over time.

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Anthropogenic Coronaviruses: A Unified Novel Coronavirus Origin Theory

A theory is a question and I invite you to ask the question with me. If there is a clear reason why this cannot be true, or some part can’t be true, let me know and I will adjust. Send me your source please. I have been adjusting since the beginning based on the best sources I can find and I publish my current understanding for the purpose of being challenged. Thank you.

Being that this is a proposal of a twenty-plus-year phenomenon, it helps to review some medium-term urbanization and disease history for perspective.

Seeking Challenges
  • Where has there been a major increase in human contact with living, breathing animals indoors? This would be the strongest possible challenge, especially if the animals were the ones most commonly identified as the culprit, bats or camels.
  • The strongest challenge I have received is a description of unregulated industrial-scale animal food processing having increased in the same newly-modern countries where I am blaming human indoor economy. Valid challenge, but the animals are not live, indoor, or near the same scale as the humans working indoors.
  • Another challenge has been the description of mutation through hybridization between human / non-human animal viruses. Okay, this is the currently accepted explanation, but what about mutation between viruses carried by two different humans? We have a new trend and humans are the ones newly living in the conditions where the virus spreads most on a massive scale: indoor, living, breathing humans.
Summary

Coronaviruses are spreading asymptomatically among a hugely-increased population of indoor humans, developing and evolving unnoticed for years, then chance mutations are causing outbreaks. SARS in 2002, MERS in 2012, and COVID-19 – all three related coronaviruses – are connected by the same progenitor: many many indoor humans sharing “exhaled breath sewage.”

Coronaviruses have passed among humans and various non-human animals for millennia. When coronaviruses caused illness, it was mostly mild illness, little more than an inconvenience to the hosts. The relationship was mostly commensalistic – that is until humans brought the coronaviruses indoors. The coronavirus population exploded in the fertile environment of air-conditioned urban centers and it was the historically well-cultivated commensalistic relationship with humans that enabled coronaviruses to be the first evolutionary beneficiaries of the new scale of man-made air-tight-indoor-air environment. The abrupt explosion of indoor space enabled by indoor economy – especially in high-density tropical areas – propelled life on its natural evolutionary path toward new disease-causing coronaviruses. “Viral gravity” is evolutionary gravity. Three new coronaviruses have emerged in under two decades, and indoor exhaled breath sharing is not just one primary spread vector. Indoor exhaled breath sharing is the evolutionary mechanism. Large-scale indoor exhaled breath sharing is the primordial soup, the origin, the creator, the genesis. Novel coronaviruses are the very first sprouts of new life in the Anthropocene.

Assumptions

Some of the following assumptions are difficult to quantify, but I believe so extreme as to be self-evident. Even if some specific assumptions are imperfect, the trend is clear.

  • Three novel viruses in under twenty years is extremely abrupt by an evolutionary time period standard. It represents a new trend and requires something common to the three for explanation that is new.
  • The number of humans spending time indoors has increased abruptly in the last three to five decades. The increase has been coincident with the emergence of new respiratory viruses. Increased number of humans indoors has led in time the emergence of the new viruses sufficiently to indicate it is a cause of virus evolution.
  • Guangdong Province, China, Saudi Arabia, Jordan, Qatar, and Wuhan, China all use a lot of air conditioning, in contrast to how they interacted before recent development.
  • Being relatively new, many of the origin cities’ buildings are built “air-tight” for central air conditioning instead of retro-fitted. Their buildings are not drafty or leaky.
  • Evolutionary genetics has shown that zoonotic transmission is involved in virus evolution. However, this has not been definitively proven to be the final mutation into a disease-causing agent.
  • Are coronaviruses known to evolve quickly? I believe they are. If they do evolve quickly, it would explain why coronaviruses are the first to take evolutionary advantage of the new collective virus reservoir of the human indoor economy.
  • Evolutionary science can be subjective / statistical. Evolution relies on chance and succeeds with large numbers of chances for low-probability events to occur. A “macro-view” is more effective at identifying an evolutionary cause by identifying a large number of chances for a low-probability event to occur than is a “micro-view,” which attempts to find the actual single event itself. The critical “single evolutionary event” in these cases almost always occurred “somewhere in the world, anytime, anyplace” – and at least a month in the past with no trained observer present.
  • Everything the virus does is consistent with thriving indoors. Our indoor economy has domesticated a virus like an invisible indoor pet that has now grown so numerous that is has turned against us and begun to make us sick.
  • We will never find a “patient zero” for a virus that seems to float on the wind, but the virus exists, and the answer can be the clearly-observable shift in the wind itself.
The Theory: “Anthropogenic Coronavirus Evolution Theory”

In the early 21st century, a new type of virus emerged causing three distinct outbreaks between 2002 and 2020. Coronaviruses, which had passed among humans and non-human animals since the beginning of time, found new fertile development ground in urban skyscrapers built air-tight with central air conditioning that allowed exhaled breath sharing to go mainstream within humanity. Human indoor economy led to a new way of sharing “exhaled breath sewage,” which in turn led to new virus evolution.

Zoonotic leap among humans, bats, camels, palm civets, raccoon dogs, ferret badgers, pangolins, and domestic cats in markets and other various locations of human / non-human animal interaction was originally theorized as the primary evolutionary requirement and origin of the viruses. Matching the virus to infected animals along with genetic markers suggested that animals were the primary reservoir. However, it was later determined that human breath sharing on a large scale in dense, newly-developed, warm-weather cities with skyscrapers built air-tight for central air conditioning was the primary reservoir and original source for all affected species in these outbreaks. Humans indoors first developed viruses with mostly asymptomatic spread hyper-enabled by large air-tight buildings. Humans passed viruses to animals, some of whom got sick, but not until humans got sick did humans finally look in the animals, find matching viruses, and point to the animals as the source.

However, as the novel coronaviruses repeatedly appeared and developed into a trend, humans noticed that the small change in human-animal live indoor contact was insufficient to explain multiple similar occurrences of indoor live human respiratory viruses. Zoonotic transmission therefore lost favor as an explanation for evolutionary development of novel coronaviruses.

The Virus Reservoir and Evolutionary Mutation

The fact that the three new viruses are all suspected to have an excellent ability to circulate among humans without causing disease indicates that asymptomatic spread among indoor humans is the reservoir. The evolutionary mutation is that the virus mutates from a benign virus to a disease-causing virus. The new scale of the indoor humans reservoir is providing the large number of chance events required for evolution.

We have three new viruses. The viruses are related. There has to be a new type of reservoir to explain it. The animals have not changed a lot. The human coronavirus reservoir has changed a lot! The critical mutations are among millions of human-human transfers and multiplication.

Naming Note
  • The alternate names for the viruses of “EBSRS-CoV-1,” “EBSRS-CoV-2,” and “EBSRS-CoV-3” are used to illustrate the point and unify the viruses. The names refer to SARS-CoV-1, MERS-CoV, and SARS-CoV-2 respectively.
2019: Exhaled Breath Sewage Respiratory Syndrome Coronavirus 3
  • AKA EBSRS-CoV-3 (formerly SARS-CoV-2)
  • First identified in Wuhan, China.
  • Wuhan China lies near 31 degrees north latitude and has more than 3.5 months per year with average daily high temperature above 27°C.
  • Wuhan China ballooned in population from 3.5 million in 1990 to over 8 million in 2020, massive new urbanization and indoor economy.
  • EBSRS-CoV-3 is known to transmit well through aerosols asymptomatically among humans, consistent with many transmission events for evolutionary purposes, especially in enclosed rooms.
  • Zoonotic transmission not yet conclusively verified despite global effort.
  • Cruise ships are a known vector, with their closed ventilation systems.
  • There are wet markets in Wuhan, but the virus seemed to “spread everywhere quickly out of nowhere,” with no clear connection to animal contact.
2012: Exhaled Breath Sewage Respiratory Syndrome Coronavirus 2
  • AKA EBSRS-CoV-2 (formerly MERS-CoV)
  • First identified in Saudi Arabia. Later determined that it possibly circulated in Jordan as well. https://www.cdc.gov/coronavirus/mers/about/index.html
  • Saudi Arabia is a petro-state (cheap energy for air conditioning) that has experienced a population explosion since 1980. Now 80% of its inhabitants live in 10 major urban centers, mostly in the southwest of Saudi Arabia, well within the tropics.
  • Qatar was another potential origin, a very hot petro-state country.
  • EBSRS-CoV-2 is also thought to pass asymptomatically among humans.
  • Known to infect camels and bats. Transmission from camels to humans has been observed, but no “patient zero” identified in relation to camel contact.
2002: Exhaled Breath Sewage Respiratory Syndrome Coronavirus 1
  • AKA EBSRS-CoV-1 (formerly SARS-CoV-1)
  • Outbreak started in Guangdong Province, China.
  • Guangdong Province lies in latitude very near the Tropic of Cancer.
  • Just north of Hong Kong, Guangdong Province is home to two of the top four Chinese cities by GDP. Guangdong Province’s GDP is larger than Spain’s GDP, and would be the 13th country in the world by GDP. Lots of humans working indoors. Indoor economy.
  • This first outbreak appears to have been more closely and reliably connected to markets and wild animals than the later two outbreaks. However, the origin is inconclusive due to CCP blocking of WHO officials for several weeks or months after the emergence of the outbreak.

Question: were the first cases in “air conditioning months” in all three outbreaks?

Question: does polluted air contribute?

Exhaled Breath Sewage Coronavirus Evolution Theory Explains the Following Better than the Zoonotic Transmission Theory
  • Why both EBSRS-CoV 2 and 3 spread so well asymptomatically among humans. Asymptomatic spread was required for virus evolution months or even years prior to identification as a disease-causing agent. People often reference the idea that a disease spreads more successfully with a low mortality rate because the host is alive to spread. Asymptomatic spread is zero mortality, which is commensalistic, which is the ideal relationship for evolving.
  • Why all three of the viruses originated in relatively warm, newly-developed cities with exploding indoor economy partially enabled by air conditioning.
  • Why three new respiratory diseases have emerged in just 20 years coincident with urban population explosion in warm regions with air-tight buildings and air conditioning.
  • Why the three new coronaviruses, that supposedly came from zoonotic transmission from different animals, are so closely related to each other. We have a very specific trend, there is probably a very specific, related cause.
  • Why EBSRS-CoV-3, the most transmissible of the three new viruses, is so mild. It gradually increased in severity as it evolved quickly until concentrating in a large city, Wuhan, China, which may or may not have been the true origin.
  • This theory is not completely at odds with zoonotic leap being an evolutionary aid to the virus development.
  • Maybe there are multiple, even hundreds, thousands, or millions of significant virus mutation events. Maybe the world has been widely infected with a mostly benign, asymptomatic form of the virus that teeters on the edge of a disease-causing mutation that occurs relatively often. Maybe any pandemic involving a brand new virus acts differently from a long-time established, maturely evolved virus. Maybe a new virus relies more on mutation and evolution continuously and therefore acts differently in predictable as well as inherently unpredictable ways. We are not dealing with a turtle virus, established in its ways after having survived millions of years of evolutionary change with its simple “head in the shell” trick. We are dealing with a young rabbit being chased by a puppy darting in every direction not knowing where to go and therefore going everywhere changing frantically at every random turn.
  • Maybe the vitamin D deficiency correlation with COVID-19 fatality does not mean vitamin D deficiency is a comorbidity but rather a second, related symptom that is correlated with being indoors and having been exposed to a higher infectious dose of the virus.
Zoonotic Transmission Virus Evolution Theory Explains the Following Better

Update: somebody help out here because trying to describe zoonotic transmission evolution theory makes it a joke. It is absolutely laughable we humans are trying to point to animals as a source.

But I will try, here we go:

  • The zoonotic transmission theory says that a virus circulates among an animal population as a reservoir until it mutates by chance and gains the ability to infect humans. Once it infects humans, it causes disease.

Or

  • Two similar viruses, one human and one non-human animal, infect the same cell in a host, hybridize by replicating together, and henceforth infect humans causing disease.

And…

It makes perfect sense so far, but I’m at a loss attempting to seriously continue:

  • Human-animal contact has increased on an unprecedented scale along with mass global urbanization. The viruses have started in poor countries with under-regulated food processing industries. The new scale of these markets yields enough increased zoonotic transfer to produce three new viruses in 20 years.
  • OK, but live human-animal contact? Indoors?
  • Are there new indoor markets? Why airborne? Why the seemingly lightest fastest aerosol-borne viruses possible?
  • Humans have gotten sick with a virus that spreads primarily indoors. If we want to say this came from animals, we need to see live camels and live bats breathing indoors, enclosed with humans. This virus did not crawl from dead bat meat into somebody’s mouth and then suddenly in just a few virus generations spread tiny virus wings and infect the world of humans, airborne, indoors all at once. Did flying fish get stranded on land, sprout lungs in a generation, and lo! mammals? No. Did some ancient monkey-sailors get caught at sea, sprout a blowhole on top of their head and start swimming, lo! whales? No. We need an intermediate environment. Unless you can show me some large-scale enclosed indoor breathing animal markets, you’re debunked. I can show you plenty of indoor breathing human virus markets: they are called cubicles, call centers, housing complexes, public transit, skyscrapers – modern human cities and also clearly recognizable as Every. Single. Confirmed. Serious. COVID-19 outbreak.
    • Note: Don’t suddenly tell me hoards of people are hanging out in bat caves. Show me a modern widespread market-driven caveman-bat-batman movement of at least 10 million people and we’ll talk. It still would not explain the camels anyway. Does the Arabian Peninsula have tons of closed-air camel garages for the wealthy now? They have never heard of Ferrari’s? The camel shit is whisked off the floor by robots or what? Would the camels even put up with that? Would humans hang out for hours in such a garage? I’m not buying it.
  • The only reason wet markets and China’s under-regulated food processing industry exist at the scale at which these species transfers are more likely is the world’s mass urbanization.
  • Genetic history marker studies? Do the zoonotic transmission claims based on genetics hold up to the scrutiny that they have been influenced by pervasive confirmation bias from the beginning? We lack conclusive cause-effect evidence to support critical genetic assumptions.
  • Hybridization by a single host being infected with two coronavirsuses, which hybridize as they multiply together within the cells? Okay, but three times in 20 years? Roll snake eyes three times in a row, go. I’ll be checking your dice.
  • Does zoonotic leap novel coronavirus evolution stand up against the idea that it still could play a secondary role in the evolutionary process? Does zoonotic leap fit in as only 10% of the process instead of 90%? I think it fits just fine in 10% of the solution, second-place to the obvious.
  • The supporting evidence for the zoonotic transmission origin theory is scant relative to the monumental efforts at collecting it. I feel justified being unsatisfied.
  • This theory appears to be an outdated assumption that has survived only by momentum of past convention. “Of course, humans get new viruses from animals,” – that is until they give new viruses to animals.
  • Observed recent changes in human-animal contact is not new enough or extreme enough to explain a major new evolutionary trend of three new viruses. This is especially true with respect to indoor human-animal contact. It is more especially true also when compared with the recent explosion in indoor human-human breath sharing contact.
Confirmation Bias Toward Zoonotic Transfer Evolution
  • There is a strong – bordering on fanatically blinding – confirmation bias for the zoonotic leap virus evolution theory among the scientific community. A single piece of evidence for zoonotic transmission or discovery of similar virus in non-human animals is often regarded as the “case closed smoking gun.” This prevents further research and discovery of the true cause.
  • There is a natural aversion to identify humans as a “virus reservoir.”
  • “Viruses are nature. Viruses have to come from nature. We are not nature, we are people!” Recognize that? Pretty familiar. That is people being ridiculous.
  • It is so widely ingrained into our psyche that, “If a virus were there, we would be sick,” that we ignore asymptomatic spread as the potential evolutionary origin of new viruses.
  • No definitive patient zero has been identified in any of the three new coronavirus outbreaks. Connection to markets and animals was inevitable due to the strength of the confirmation bias.
Humans Indoors as a Spread Vector Versus Humans Indoors as the Evolutionary Mechanism
  • “Transmission vector” has been poorly separated from “evolutionary cause.” Air-tight buildings as a new transmission vector could indeed easily explain why zoonotic-leap-generated respiratory viruses are now suddenly a worse problem. Air-tight buildings would spread new zoonotic leap viruses fast. True. Of course. However, this easy explanation prevents people from recognizing that asymptomatic transmission is essentially equal to an evolutionary cause. Asymptomatic transmission can enable evolution, not just virus spread after evolution.
  • If indoor exhaled breath sewage evolution theory is correct, one might expect COVID-19 to be seasonal and peak in the summer. However, this confuses spread vector with evolutionary mechanism. Still, if air conditioning is enabling evolution, opening the windows should be moved up the list of COVID-19 prevention measures.
If True, Exhaled Breath Sewage Evolution Theory Would Suggest
  • That though reducing contact with animals might possibly slow evolution, new coronavirus respiratory viruses will continue to emerge with or without animal contact as long as humans spend a lot of time in buildings breathing each other’s exhaled breath sewage.
  • The global response to COVID-19 will (eventually!) include sanitation of indoor air. Sanitizing indoor air will not only slow the spread of COVID-19, it will slow the development of future respiratory viruses.
  • Sanitation of indoor air should be the primary prevention measure against COVID-19 because it would also eliminate the evolutionary source of new disease-causing coronaviruses.
Air Conditioning Versus Heating – What’s the Difference?

Long story short, I cannot make an argument that there is a big difference between air conditioning and heating. Both air conditioning and heating lead to people spending time indoors sharing exhaled breath. The only difference with air conditioning is the recent increase in human-hours spent breathing indoors as a result of increased population in places that use air conditioning. Air conditioning enables large indoor economy.

  • baseboard heat would not sanitize air
  • The origin cities may not be rich enough for widespread air conditioning and I do not have that data to support.
  • Is this valid: When a building is heated, heating sanitizes the air from viruses much better than cooling the air does? In a heater, the temperature spikes up in the furnace heat exchanger above where viral RNA survives well – what about baseboard heating though? In an air conditioner, the temperature spikes down when cooled, failing to break down viral RNA. Therefore, heated air-tight buildings do not act as a collective virus reservoir like air-conditioned buildings do. Is this true? Is this true enough? Questions on this one: types of heating, types of air re-circulation, actual amount of AC in origin cities, difficult to get this data. Is air conditioning simply providing the sheer indoor human numbers required and is independent of the type of indoor climate control?
  • Too many details to make a separation between air conditioning and heating. Thanks to all the people who challenged me on this. This theory stands without it and is stronger without the weak link, which was never necessary.
Some Optimism – An Existing Prevention Measure Becomes the Solution
  • Can entire cities open the windows in the summer and “sweat the curve flat”? This confuses evolutionary origin with spread vector, but still connected.
  • A global standard of indoor air sanitation could completely eliminate the evolutionary virus reservoir “primordial soup” and stop the recent trend (three in just two decades) of novel coronaviruses. An air sanitation standard would certainly benefit in the fight against COVID-19.
  • N95 air conditioner filters anybody?

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Disease History, Urbanization, and Coronavirus Origination Theory

This post is the notes for the theory. For the anthropogenic coronaviruses origin theory, click here.

A Brief Recent History of Humans Sharing Fluids, Disease Prevention and Urbanization

Cities have always been harbingers of disease. Bubonic Plague flowed from relatively urban China to relatively rural Europe. Smallpox flowed from urbanized European settlers to rural American natives. Most of the worst diseases require sharing of fluids to develop and spread – but we figured that out so we prevented sharing fluids – except exhaled breath. Result: We now share a lot more exhaled breath than ever before, and I mean A LOT, for the first time in history.

1 AD: total world population 300 million

1000 AD: total world population 310 million

1347-1351: Black Death reaches Europe from Asia via Crimea on rat fleas on the silk road.

1492: Europe discovers the Americas – along with smallpox

1500: total world population 500 million

1796: Smallpox vaccine demonstrated. Cities grow.

1800: total world population 978 million

1850: John Snow connected Cholera to sewage. Humans stop drinking sewage. Cities grow.

1850: World urban population still under 1 billion.

1881: Carlos Finlay identifies mosquitoes as a disease vector. Cities grow.

1914: first home with air conditioning. Windows closed all summer.

1928: Penicillin isolated as the first antibiotic. Cities grow.

1928: World urban population still under 1 billion.

1950: World urban population reaches ~1 billion

1970s: energy crisis. Buildings tighten-up for efficiency. Exhaled breath trapped inside on a global scale.

1976: Legionella bacteria identified as a human pathogen after an outbreak. Click here for outbreak description. Later linked in some cases to water-cooled air conditioner cooling towers. ***Interesting, but mostly unrelated to novel coronaviruses: 1. not novel, 2. not viruses, 3. Not even human to human transmissible.

1978: smallpox eradicated by global vaccination campaign. Cities grow.

1980: World urban population 1.74 billion

1981: HIV discovered, a sexually-transmitted virus

1990: World urban population 2.27 billion

2000: World urban population 2.85 billion

2003: SARS-CoV-1 emerges, a new virus that infects the lungs and causes respiratory disease.

2010: World urban population 3.57 billion

2012: MERS-CoV emerges, another lung virus causing respiratory disease

2019: SARS-CoV-2 emerges, human lungs again, third time now.

2019: World urban population 4.27 billion

Exhaled Breath Sharing, a New Breeding Ground

The three most recent viruses to develop that infect humans have been respiratory viruses. ALL THREE. The three new viruses in just the last 20 years are lung viruses.

The story is simple. Humans figure out how to sanitize drinking water, avoid mosquitoes, kill bacteria, and vaccinate, but it enables us to breathe so much of each other’s exhaled air that viruses have found a new “primordial soup” in which to breed and evolve.

New respiratory viruses will continue to develop until we let the air out, open the windows, go outside, breathe fresh air.

Bats and camels may have coronaviruses and pass to humans sometimes, yes, but does it make the news when animals catch respiratory viruses from humans? Hell no, not until they can write the news. Are bats and camels gathering in artificial air-tight spaces by the billions? No again. Who is? Humans are. I believe the transmission goes both ways, but the primary virus development is the other way around. HUMANS are developing lung viruses with billions of us indoors breathing each other’s exhaled air, then bats and camels catch them from us.

The terms “exhaled breath sewage,” “exhaled breath sanitation,” “building ventilation factor,” etc. may be the buzz phrases of our generation.

In our minds, viruses must come from the wild. They must come from fetid bat caves and mangy camel hair. Most disease still does, but the newest breeding ground, the newest “virus wild” is the ocean of air among the concrete jungles and towering steel / glass aquariums into which humans exhale and trap 6 liters per minute of living breath each. Air is a fluid. We share the fluid, much more than any other animal. Like any shared fluid, it can make us sick.

Humans domesticate cows, cows become the second species by biomass living on Earth (second only to humans). Humans domesticate coronaviruses, coronaviruses run amok.

The Solution … ?

  • Update building codes to require massive ventilation, filtering, and sanitation of the indoor air – WORLDWIDE.
  • Ventilate public transit.
  • End air conditioning.
  • Everybody physical distance. Worldwide. All the time. Forever.

Really? What do we do?

Maybe the old Miasma theory has come true, we humans have made it so.

https://data.worldbank.org/indicator/SP.URB.TOTL?end=2019&start=1960&view=chart

https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Estimates_of_historical_world_population

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Some Clarity on Masks

If it is not worth the risk without a mask, then it is not worth the risk with a mask.

What I Would Do in Order of Importance
  1. Lose excess weight. We have known about this virus for more than six months now and we have known about the comorbidities the entire time. Diets. No sugar. Less excess carbs. Smaller portions. That’s it. Not easy, but straightforward and effective – with or without a virus. Care about yourself.
  2. Be outside. And by the way, you might lose weight outside. Not always possible, not necessarily easy, but the most effective.
  3. Open the windows. Turn on a fan. Make the indoors as much like outdoors as possible. Fresh air. Not easy, but effective. One person can infect your whole family in an enclosed house – or not, your choice.
    • What about winter you say? We will see when we get there. Currently it is July so we are lucky we can be outside.
  4. Pay attention to what “physical distance” means. It is about your exhaled breath. The virus is invisible and odorless, but imagine second-hand smoke. Outdoors, you are probably alright. Indoors, it could be the guy on the far end of the other room choking you out. Pay attention. Not so difficult, and fairly effective.
  5. Masks in hospitals, on public transit, airplanes. Mandatory. Done. Boom. No problem.
  6. Mandate that businesses post whether they do not allow masks, allow masks, or require masks? Sure, for the rest of my life if it makes you feel better. Businesses, decide and post it, go. Dictate it, DeWine.
  7. Require masks everywhere? Magic false-sense-of-security cloaks that make you feel comfortable in virus-polluted recirculated air-conditioned places going wherever you want without thinking? Easy, yes. Effective? Maybe.
    • An encroachment on rights? Yes. It is. Comparing “you must cover your face to operate” to “you must wash your hands and follow sanitation codes” is an unproductive affront to personal dignity. It is offensive to my basic beliefs. Mandating face covering is a big deal and you better be doing everything else right before I am happy about it. We are not even close.

This is going to continue until we face the first 5 items on this list. Pretending #7 is the answer because it is easy just makes it worse.

Note: unlike the entire rest of my blog, there is swearing in this post. I’ve been driven to it.

Governments across the United States have taken away the right for businesses to operate with their full face showing. Most business owners and employees must wear face coverings to operate. That happened. Boom. Just like that. Some people seem to love it. Many people see it as a civic courtesy. Many people see it as a serious encroachment on rights. Either way, it happened.

Here is some discussion that should occur.

Probable COVID-19 Spreaders from Most Spread to Least

Severe Spreaders
  • Hospitals
  • Public transit
  • Bars and clubs
  • Call centers
  • Collective care – like nursing homes
  • Prisons
  • Meat packing facilities and other high density work environments
  • Cities in general

I will gladly wear a mask in a hospital or on public transit. Not only are they high-density and indoors, but they also are not social places. We don’t want to be there anyway. Who wants to be in a hospital? Nobody, that’s who. Wearing a mask there doesn’t take anything away. Likewise public transit. Subway cars weren’t designed jam-packed so people could socialize with their full open face spitting on each other from three inches.

Moderate Spreaders
  • Restaurants
  • Retail Stores
  • Office space – so much time here, 8 hours +
  • Basically anywhere indoors where the air is trapped – along with trapped exhaled breath aerosols!
  • Possibly a park on a no-wind day in the shade might make this list if you have a concert jam-packed with drunk people. Maybe, but I doubt even the worst conditions outdoors would come close to being indoors.
  • Wherever everybody goes when they close parks and beaches
Probably Practically Fucking Zero Spread

I try to avoid swearing here but in this case I think we need to jump-start the old common sense neurons.

  • Parks
  • Beaches
  • Parks and beaches on a breezy day especially in the sun
  • Especially beaches. They are breezy and sunny.
  • Passing someone on the street or sidewalk
  • Anywhere outdoors
Guaranteed Zero Spread
  • Somebody in their yard doing yard work

Can you believe I even wrote that? I’m actually not 100% convinced this happened but I heard the governor of Michigan essentially tried to put the whole state on house arrest for like a day until various Sheriffs called bullshit. I also heard Mike DeWine said something about mandatory masks, which I believe but he backed off.

Update – 15 July 2020, DeWhiner said something arbitrary about masks. I’m not sure what. Good luck with that guvnah. Man up and tell people to open their windows in July.

Where do masks fit in on this list? Probably nowhere. Indoors, does wearing masks prevent spread of virus breath to the people around you? Very little. Outdoors, are you going to transfer enough exhaled virus breath floating in the wind with UV light sanitizing each little droplet on the way? No way. Not now. Not ever. Breathe free people.

Do masks provide a false sense of security? Oh yeah. Magic masks and everybody back to work! When the virus goes away, is it because everybody was wearing masks? If I post a sign in my yard, “no elephants” and no elephants show up, was it because of the sign? (not my joke, I copied because I love it) When the virus persists for another two years with no reliable vaccine and the media loses interest, did the virus really go away? I bet the masks will.

Some Options Besides Instant Dictation

Hey DeWine, pay attention. Copy this to your teleprompter and regurgitate it.

  • Publicize a risk list like above and repeat it. Let people manage their own risk. They are better at it than the government.
  • Require that businesses post whether they require masks or not. Let businesses decide what they do, make them post the decision, and let the people decide. If somebody is going to tell me to wear a mask, it better at least be the owner of the building or business. Mike DeWine sure as hell has not earned the right to tell me or any business that. AND TO BE CLEAR, do not even try comparing this to banning indoor smoking. My exhaled breath is not a completely optional carcinogenic fire specifically designed to create poisonous smoke. If that thought even crossed your mind, do ten push-ups and read a book.
  • Establish guidelines on delivering food to the elderly and at-risk. Organize helping out.

Some Illustrations

Farts

Ever smelled a fart outdoors? If you did, it would have probably made your eyes water indoors.

COVID-19 (the virus, I know it’s called SARS-CoV-2) is carried in the aerosols of our exhaled breath. Did you know that we exhale 6 liters of breath per minute? Can you imagine farting at 6 liters per minute? Yeah, it would clear a room and it still wouldn’t smell outside.

Does underwear stop a fart from smelling?

Onions

Did you know that viruses can enter through our eyes? Ever chopped an onion – or been in a room where someone is chopping an onion? Your eyes watering is you catching the virus – indoors.

Aerosols

Watch some virus aerosol videos on YouTube.

Fog a Mirror

Can you fog a mirror? You can spread a virus.

Lose Weight

When you lose weight, most of the mass exits your body in your exhaled breath. Carbon dioxide doesn’t make people sick, but it is one more thing contained in breath that we don’t perceive.

Peeing in a Pool

I’m peeing in your pool, but don’t worry I’ve got my shorts on they filter the pee.

Said someone about to be banned from a pool.

Second-Hand Smoke

Yeah go ahead and smoke inside here – so long as they’re filtered cigarettes. They’re filtered cigarettes, right?

Said nobody ever.

Breath Volume

We exhale 6 liters of air per minute. That is a lot. It is enough to fill a room as it disperses.

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Buy and Hold … and Ignore

Somebody in New York has a data project that correlates market news articles to future market moves / short-term volatility. Somebody knows the strength of this correlation and they place their bets accordingly. If the correlation is strong enough, then they are creating the news stories. If it is weak, they are ignoring the news.

What is the cause-effect relationship among news, market moves, and actual events?

Some Cause-Effect Possibilities

A.

1. Something happens.
2. News reports it.
3. Market moves.

B.

1. News reports something.
2. Something else happens in reaction.
3. Market moves.

C.

1. Market moves by wild mob.
2. News reports mostly random speculation / is along for the wild ride.
3. Hedge funds win and lose along with the rest of us, just more in a more complex way.

D.

1. The largest market players have incorporated creating news into their big data market-controlling strategy.
2. Big money / big data analysis creates news stories that create profitable market moves.
3. Market reacts with short-term volatility, biggest hedge funds profit.

A is the ostensible assumption. D is the most cynical. I suspect it is pretty close to option C really, but I don’t know. We as outsiders do not know the answer and I suspect the real answer is a combination. As usual, it depends!

On Market “News”

  1. Misinformation is as bad as lack of information.
  2. The question, “what are reporters saying,” yields infinite random information of unknown value – and therefore zero value.
  3. Speculation is free. The only incentive for someone selling news is to say something alarming and attention-grabbing.
  4. The question, “where are people actually putting their money,” yields better information. However, the average outsider investor can only know where the money really went after it happens.

Where Should I Put My Money?

Short-term, only the most inside people know “real” value of individual investments. No single individual knows the “real” value of every individual stock, hence the “market.”

Long-term, there is a strong incentive by all major parties for the market to go up. This applies to value creation by companies as well as the more cynical policy setting by governments. Therefore buy-and-hold works. Ride the bandwagon!

If you can, put your money right in front of you where it can enhance your own value creation / attention / effort. In other words, put your money where you are the “insider.” If you can, be the insider.

But I’m Curious What’s Happening

Okay, then do not ask the question, “What is the news saying about the market.”

Instead start with the question, “Where has the market gone?” This at least starts you off by knowing where people actually have placed their collective substantive opinion.

Who’s Who of Electrical Engineering, and Physics, and Science

1564-1642: Galileo Galilei, Italian, father of observational astronomy, phases of Venus, Jupiter’s satellites, observed Saturn’s rings

1596-1650: René Decartes, French, philosopher, logical method

1623-1662: Blaise Pascal, French, fluid dynamics

1629-1695: Christiaan Huygens, Dutch, Saturn’s rings, pendulum clock

1642-1727: Isaac Newton, published Philosophiæ Naturalis Principia Mathematica in 1687

1646-1716: Gottfried Wilhelm Leibniz, French, differential and integral calculus, especially modern conventional notation

1700-1782: Daniel Bernoulli, Swiss, fluid mechanics, probability, statistics

1745 – 1827: Alessandro Giuseppe Antonio Anastasio Volta, Italian, the battery

1766-1844: John Dalton, English, chemist, physicist, meteorologist, atomic theory of chemistry

1775 – 1836: André-Marie Ampère, solenoid & electrical telegraph

1776-1856: Amedeo Avogadro, Italian, equal volumes of gases under equal pressure and temperature contain equal numbers of molecules

1777 – 1851: Hans Christian Ørsted, Danish, electromagnetism

1789 – 1854: Georg Ohm, German, direct relationship between voltage and current

1791 – 1867: Michael Faraday, English, various, electric motor

1824-1907: William Thomson, 1st Baron Kelvin, thermodynamics, measurement of absolute zero temperature.

1831 – 1879: James Clerk Maxwell, Scottish, electromagnetic radiation

1846 – 1914: George Westinghouse, American, AC electric power

1847 – 1931: Thomas Edison, American, light bulb, various, DC electric power

1856 – 1943: Nikola Tesla, Serbian-American, AC electric power

1879-1955: Albert Einstein, physicist. Born in Germany. 1895 moved to Switzerland. 1896-1901 stateless. 1901 obtained Swiss citizenship. 1905 wrote the Annus Mirabilis papers. 1907-1915 developed general relativity. 1933 cancelled trip to Germany forever and renounced his citizenship at German consulate in Antwerp. 1939 sent the Einstein-Szilárd letter to FDR. 1940 settled in the US and became a US citizen.

Master of Energy Engineering

First Term

Power Systems

Power Electronics

Mechanical Drive Systems

Numerical Methods in Energy Sciences

Nuclear Energy: Basic Aspects

https://www.youtube.com/watch?time_continue=233&v=UlYClniDFkM&feature=emb_logo 

Integrated Problem Solving in Energy

Second Term

Electrical Drives; Advanced Topics in Electrical Machines, Including Implementation Aspects

Power Systems Calculations

Energy Markets and Regulation

Energy Economics

Renewable Energy

Smart Distribution Systems

Energy Challenges

Thermal Systems

Integrated Project in Energy

2nd Year

 

Foreign Film Night!

FFN is an effort to get some culture from around the world – and have an excuse to stay in and eat popcorn, ice cream, and beer. Subtitled, never dubbed.

Upcoming Film Ideas

Dostana – Bollywood, recommended by Taylor

The Black Book

The Wind Rises – heart-wrenching WW1

More Studio Ghibli

More French, they have been good.

Das Boot

Past Films

Der Untergang – 3 star for the Germans. Film about the final months of Hitler. Includes famously-memed scene of Hitler exploding on his generals.

Coco avant Chanel – 3.5 stars for the French. Another great French film. The life of Gabrielle Chanel.

The Resistance Banker – 3.5 stars for the Dutch. WW2 Amsterdam Resistance finance.

Mongol – 4 stars for the Russians / Kazaks. About the rise of Ghengis Khan

Amélie – 4 stars for the French

Spirited Away – 3 wild stars for the Japanese, Studio Ghibli

Bullhead – 1 star for the Belgians. Traumatic scene not outweighed by the movie quality.

Edge of Deomcracy – documentary about Brazilian politics. Re-watch in person to keep track of characters. Where did the footage come from??

Man of the Year – 2 stars for the Brazilians. Nate’s favorite to learn Portuguese.

The Bird Cage – 3.5 stars for the French.

Force Majeure – 3 stars for the Swedish. Interesting. Deep? Funny?

The Farewell – 3 stars. Pretend Grandma isn’t dying. Chinese culture.

Crouching Tiger Hidden Dragon – cool fight scenes. Chinese.

La Sombra y La Tierra – 2.5 stars for the Colombians.

Dangal – 3.5 stars for the Indians for female wrestling!

A Girl Walks Home Alone at Night –

Ratatouille – not really foreign but takes place in Paris.

Princess Mononoke

Hero – 3.5 stars for Zhang Yimou

Raise the Red Lanterns – 3.5 stars, Delaware Hayes classic for Zhang Yimou.

To Live – Nate’s favorite Zhang Yimou. 4 stars. What a period in history for the Chinese.

The Fall of the American Empire –

Energy News

All news here.

KU Leuven

Leuven Sustainable Earth

Energyville,sustainable energy tech in Genk

Vito, sustainability in Flanders research

KU Leuven Nieuws Interdisciplinariteit

News

IEEE

IEEE Smart Grid

IEEE CommSoc Publications

IEEE PELS Education

IEEE Spectrum Magazine

Electrek: Electrek is a news and commentary site that is tracking, analyzing, and breaking news on the transition from fossil-fuel transport to electric transport.

European Institute of Innovation & Technology News

EIT InnoEnergy Facebook

EIT InnoEnergy LinkedIn

Energy Foundation Blog

European Battery Alliance News

Events

IEEE Columbus Ohio

IEEE Smart Grid events page

IEEE Comm Soc events, search “smart grid” and “power line”

International Conference on Smart Grid

European Energy Innovation Events

Companies and Links

IEEE Learning Network

EDP Open Data

InnoEnergy Online Courses

InnoEnergy Top 10 Innovators Reports

Produce. Persevere. Own. Succeed. Fail. Care. Do. Learn. Win.