Market Prediction Results, So Right and So Wrong

Check out this timeline of market predictions. I was WRONG. The guy who was right wishes to remain anonymous, so we’ll call him Sven Laarson.

Nate on 9 Dec 2015, S&P 500 = 2,048

Economists are like weathermen. They are barely better than basic observation most of the time. However, they are paying attention, and when a bad storm is imminent, they are going to see it a few hours ahead—long enough to get inside.
I am staying in cash, so here is a specific wager that I will make up to $1000 so I can put my money where my mouth is. I am willing to bet that we will see 1630 (-22%) before we see 2230 (+8%) in the S&P.

Sven on 29 Mar 2016, S&P 500 = 2,055

“Put me down for 2,750 before 1,630. Then we’ll see 1,500 eventually so you’ll get your buying opportunity in the next 30 years. You could miss out though. If it hits 3,300 before the next crash it could never see 1,630 again!

We’re in the first few years right now of the fabled ’15-year bull market’. Could be 20 years. Nothing but up. The dollar will get stronger too (short term, no 15 year bull for the dollar) so watch silver for a good low price to buy on. I’ll start buying at $9 an ounce.

There are less and less obstacles in the way of all markets around the world. Growth will continue even if our local politicians in USA encourage us to vote by convincing us to be divided. Things are going great and America will be made even greater again. The entities involved in the stock market of all entities have no obstacles. The system is built for them and it helps them bring the greatest good to the most people.

Any and every moment could bring a revolutionary invention and it would be available to the whole world within years. With that powering the markets up what could stop our human growth? Almost nothing.

GDP will be measured differently soon to account for all the value we get for free (without triggering a GDP recorded event). E.g. Facebook, Whatsapp, Google, etc. It will show that we are growing at an alarming rate and just not recording it properly. We are accidentally producing less carbon emissions without the great famishes and sacrifices that were warned. Technology. No one needed to force it. The US constitution released human potential. That worked because humans are inherently good. Even in Afghanistan in all out war the vast majority of people just want to work and keep what they earn. With those humans having more access to opportunity than ever in history why would the markets collapse in droves?

It isn’t a deck of cards. It is a rain forest. Very well balanced. Everything is specialized and as a whole the system is diversified (anti-fragile as you say).”

Nate on 15 Dec 2016, S&P 500 = 2,262


The forwarded message is the bet that I offered you guys almost exactly a year ago (I bolded the bet and put it in red). I’m glad you didn’t take it because I would have lost. The S&P closed above 2,230 on 7 December.

Of note, my man Hussman is especially negative this week:

 See you guys soon,


11 Jan 2018, S&P 500 = 2,768

Sven’s hyper-optimistic prediction of 2,750 from March 2016 came true in under two years. S&P 500 up 35% since the prediction.

June 2018, S&P 500 = 2,718

Nate is glad he invested in other things and didn’t short the market, but remains bearish.

“I still subscribe to the idea that the longer it takes the worse it will be.”

Sven is glad he stayed in the market and remains bullish.

After some discussion, we determined that since we didn’t agree on an amount for the bet, and we didn’t shake hands, only pride was won and lost.

11 Oct 2018, S&P 500 = 2,728

I write this post because the S&P 500 just dropped 152 points in two days and everybody noticed it and talked about it. 2,728 only brings us back to July however. and …

Since the day in December 2015 that I predicted “down 22%,” the S&P 500 is up 33%.

This weatherman is still predicting rain: